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Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi 4-3 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 9)

Fair result
Independiente RivadaviaIndependiente Rivadavia

4–3

AldosiviAldosivi
2.3Chances (xG)2.6

On these chances Independiente Rivadavia would usually take 1.3 points and Aldosivi 1.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Independiente Rivadavia.

Independiente Rivadavia +1.8 pts vs chancesAldosivi −1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Independiente Rivadavia

Aldosivi

8

Shots on target

9

4

Big chances

5

2

Corners

7

3

Yellow cards

2

55%

Possession

45%

The match between Independiente Rivadavia and Aldosivi ended 4-3. Our AI model correctly predicted a Independiente Rivadavia win with 59% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto – Aldosivi prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Rivadavia to win

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,733 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,338 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 80%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,682 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Independiente Rivadavia ahead at half-time.

Our model 49%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 532 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Independiente Rivadavia Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Rivadavia 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Independiente Rivadavia 2+ goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Aldosivi Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aldosivi 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 85%Bookmakers 86%

Our track record

In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi 4-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
Independiente RivadaviaIndependiente Rivadavia4
AldosiviAldosivi3

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

No 58%

Correct Score

1-0 17%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

159%
X26%
216%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT33%67%59%41%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT70%30%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Independiente Rivadavia20%80%53%47%
Aldosivi52%48%85%15%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Independiente Rivadavia79%21%93%8%
Aldosivi97%3%99%1%

1st Half

136%
X49%
214%

1st Score

161%
X10%
229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

22%

X-X

18%

2-2

8%

X-2

7%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

16.5%

2-0

12.2%

1-1

11.7%

0-0

10.0%

2-1

9.8%

0-1

6.7%

3-0

6.4%

3-1

4.6%

1-2

3.9%

2-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto – Aldosivi prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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