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Newell's Old Boys vs Vélez Sarsfield 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 9)
Newell's Old Boys drew despite more chances
Newell's Old Boys1–1
Vélez SarsfieldOn these chances Newell's Old Boys would usually take 2.2 points and Vélez Sarsfield 0.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Newell's Old Boys.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Newell's Old Boys vs Vélez Sarsfield stats: how the match was played
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Newell's Old Boys had more than twice the shots on target
Newell's Old Boys
Vélez Sarsfield
6
Shots on target
1
2
Big chances
1
8
Corners
2
0
Yellow cards
0
51%
Possession
49%
Newell's Old Boys vs Vélez Sarsfield — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Vélez Sarsfield to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Newell's Old Boys to win.
Our track record
Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 399 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.7% of the time (bookmakers said 86.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).
Our model’s pick
Newell's Old Boys 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Our model’s pick
Vélez Sarsfield 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Newell's Old Boys vs Vélez Sarsfield 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Newell's Old Boys vs Vélez Sarsfield. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Newell's Old Boys1
Vélez Sarsfield1Winner
12 68%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
0-0 15%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 69%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 77%
Newell's Old Boys1Vélez Sarsfield1Winner
12 68%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
0-0 15%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 69%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 77%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 42% | 58% | 69% | 31% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 76% | 23% | 94% | 6% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38% | 62% | 75% | 25% |
| 38% | 62% | 75% | 25% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
X-X
25%
2-2
17%
1-1
16%
X-2
16%
X-1
13%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
0-0
14.5%
1-1
14.1%
0-1
13.6%
1-0
13.6%
1-2
6.9%
2-1
6.8%
0-2
6.5%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score