Always on the scoresheet
0/10Sarmiento scored in all of their last 10 (league 34% fail to score).
Sarmiento vs River Plate Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 11)
Riding their luck
Sarmiento are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+8points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games. River Plate are the other way round, behind their chances: about −8 points.
Bookmakers: Sarmiento 15% to winRiver Plate 56%
Sarmiento vs River Plate score prediction
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
River Plate expected to create clearly more
2.4 goals in total: more goals than a typical Liga Profesional de Fútbol game (average 2.1).
goals expected
Sarmiento0.9
River Plate1.5Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Sarmiento vs River Plate: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Sarmiento vs River Plate — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
River Plate to win
Our model 51%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 2,430 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 58%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 5,508 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 61%
Our track record
In 3,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 83%Bookmakers 80%
Our track record
In 1,740 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 50%Bookmakers 46%
Our track record
In 4,162 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.6% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Sarmiento Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Sarmiento 0–1 goals
Our model 83%Bookmakers 85%
Our track record
In 377 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 81.2% of the time (bookmakers said 80.7%).
River Plate Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
River Plate 0–1 goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 1,554 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Sarmiento vs River Plate — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Sarmiento vs River Plate. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Sarmiento–
River Plate–Winner
2 52%
BTTS*
No 58%
Correct Score
0-1 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 73%
Sarmiento–River Plate–Winner
2 52%
BTTS*
No 58%
Correct Score
0-1 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 73%
Full Time
120%
X29%
252%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 36% | 64% | 63% | 37% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 73% | 27% | 92% | 8% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48% | 52% | 83% | 17% |
| 25% | 75% | 60% | 40% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97% | 3% | 99% | 1% |
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
118%
X50%
232%
1st Score
133%
X12%
255%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
27%
X-X
20%
X-2
20%
1-1
10%
X-1
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
1%
Correct Score
0-1
15.7%
1-1
13.0%
0-0
11.9%
0-2
10.8%
1-2
9.6%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
4.8%
0-3
4.7%
1-3
3.9%
2-2
3.5%
2-0
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Sarmiento vs River Plate: the stats that stand out
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Sarmiento: always on the scoresheet and fast starters · River Plate: leaky
0/10Fast starters
7/10Sarmiento scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 44%).
Leaky
1/10River Plate kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 34%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Sarmiento vs River Plate: attack vs defence
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Liga Profesional de Fútbol teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Sarmiento: weak attack, weak defence (1.33 xG, 1.67 xGA a game)
- River Plate: good attack, good defence (1.75 xG, 0.94 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Sarmiento vs River Plate form and luck check
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Liga Profesional de Fútbol gamesSarmiento riding their luck, River Plate unlucky
- SarmientoBookmakers: 15% to win today.Clinical · +7 goals+7.9
- River PlateBookmakers: 56% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−7.6
Last 5 matches
River PlateL
W
W
W
D
SarmientoW
L
D
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Sarmiento 25th of 30 · River Plate 1st of 30
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 30 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Sarmiento vs River Plate: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Liga Profesional de Fútbol gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Sarmiento and River Plate games more often than the Liga Profesional de Fútbol average (45%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 36%
Sarmiento6 of 10
River Plate5 of 10
BTTSleague 45%
Sarmiento7 of 10
River Plate5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 515 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Sarmiento vs River Plate corners, cards and goal times
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameRiver Plate score early, Sarmiento late
Sarmiento
River Plate
3.4
Corners won · league 4.4
4.5
6.9
Corners conceded · league 4.4
2.3
2.1
Cards · league 2.6
1.9
2.0
Opponents' cards · league 2.6
2.9
44%
Goals before half-time · league 41%
54%
39%
Goals after 75' · league 25%
23%
29%
Conceded before half-time · league 41%
25%
36%
Conceded after 75' · league 25%
50%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
River Plate3/5
Sarmiento2/5
Both Teams to Score
River Plate0/5
Sarmiento1/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
River Plate0/5
Sarmiento2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
River Plate2/5
Sarmiento2/5
First Half Result
River Plate0/5
Sarmiento2/5
Correct Score
River Plate0/5
Sarmiento1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction