Always on the scoresheet
0/10Vélez Sarsfield scored in all of their last 10 (league 34% fail to score).
Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 12)
Riding their luck
Vélez Sarsfield are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+6points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Vélez Sarsfield 25% to winLanús 42%
Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield score prediction
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.1 goals in total, in line with the Liga Profesional de Fútbol average of 2.1.
goals expected
Lanús1.2Vélez Sarsfield0.9Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lanús to win
Our model 44%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.7% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 59%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 5,509 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 67%Bookmakers 65%
Our track record
In 1,107 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.7% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 86%Bookmakers 83%
Our track record
In 392 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.8% of the time (bookmakers said 86.3%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 50%Bookmakers 48%
Our track record
In 4,163 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.6% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Lanús Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lanús 0–1 goals
Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Vélez Sarsfield Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Vélez Sarsfield 0–1 goals
Our model 81%Bookmakers 77%
Our track record
In 1,484 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.6% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Lanús–
Vélez Sarsfield–Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 67%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 76%
Lanús–Vélez Sarsfield–Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 67%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 76%
Full Time
144%
X31%
225%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 41% | 60% | 67% | 33% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 76% | 24% | 94% | 6% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 69% | 68% | 32% |
| 45% | 55% | 80% | 20% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
132%
X50%
219%
1st Score
154%
X14%
232%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
X-X
22%
X-1
18%
2-2
11%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
15.8%
0-0
13.8%
1-1
13.7%
0-1
10.9%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
3.4%
2-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield: the stats that stand out
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Vélez Sarsfield: always on the scoresheet and fast starters
0/10Fast starters
7/10Vélez Sarsfield scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 44%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield: attack vs defence
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Liga Profesional de Fútbol teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Lanús: good attack, weak defence (1.42 xG, 1.44 xGA a game)
- Vélez Sarsfield: weak attack, weak defence (1.22 xG, 1.49 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield form and luck check
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Liga Profesional de Fútbol gamesVélez Sarsfield are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- LanúsBookmakers: 42% to win today.+0.2
- Vélez SarsfieldBookmakers: 25% to win today.Clinical · +6 goals+5.9
Last 5 matches
LanúsD
W
W
W
L
Vélez SarsfieldD
W
D
W
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Lanús 12th of 30 · Vélez Sarsfield 11th of 30
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 30 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Liga Profesional de Fútbol gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Vélez Sarsfield games more often than the Liga Profesional de Fútbol average (45%), in Lanús games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 36%
Lanús5 of 10
Vélez Sarsfield4 of 10
BTTSleague 45%
Lanús4 of 10
Vélez Sarsfield8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 515 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield corners, cards and goal times
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Liga Profesional de Fútbol average
Lanús
Vélez Sarsfield
4.9
Corners won · league 4.4
4.2
5.0
Corners conceded · league 4.4
5.1
2.0
Cards · league 2.6
1.6
1.5
Opponents' cards · league 2.6
2.0
17%
Goals before half-time · league 41%
44%
25%
Goals after 75' · league 25%
31%
11%
Conceded before half-time · league 41%
45%
56%
Conceded after 75' · league 25%
36%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Lanús3/5
Vélez Sarsfield3/5
Both Teams to Score
Lanús4/5
Vélez Sarsfield1/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Lanús3/5
Vélez Sarsfield3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Lanús5/5
Vélez Sarsfield3/5
First Half Result
Lanús2/5
Vélez Sarsfield2/5
Correct Score
Lanús2/5
Vélez Sarsfield0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction