Randers vs AGF 1-3 Score & Prediction Review
Superliga - Season 2022/2023 (Round 9)
Randers1–3
AGFOn these chances Randers would usually take 1.1 points and AGF 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: AGF.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Randers vs AGF stats: how the match was played
Superliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Randers
AGF
5
Shots on target
6
1
Big chances
1
2
Corners
5
3
Yellow cards
2
50%
Possession
51%
Randers vs AGF — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Superliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
AGF to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.4% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.
Our track record
In 536 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,148 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,964 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: AGF ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,263 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Randers 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,667 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
AGF 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: AGF 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 648 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Randers vs AGF 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Randers vs AGF. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Randers1
AGF3Winner
X2 67%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Randers1AGF3Winner
X2 67%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 60% | 40% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32% | 68% | 65% | 35% |
| 26% | 74% | 58% | 42% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
24%
1-1
18%
X-X
16%
X-2
15%
X-1
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.1%
0-1
9.2%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.8%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
5.7%
2-0
5.1%
1-3
4.3%
0-3
3.2%
3-1
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score