AGF vs Brøndby 3-3 Score & Prediction Review
Superliga - Season 2022/2023 (Round 10)
AGF3–3
BrøndbyOn these chances AGF would usually take 1.7 points and Brøndby 1.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: AGF.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →AGF vs Brøndby stats: how the match was played
Superliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Brøndby had clearly more shots on target
AGF
Brøndby
3
Shots on target
5
2
Big chances
2
5
Corners
3
1
Yellow cards
3
1
Red cards
1
44%
Possession
56%
AGF vs Brøndby — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Superliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
AGF to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,086 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: AGF ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,263 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
AGF 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: AGF 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 395 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.9% than to our 60–65%.
Our model’s pick
Brøndby 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,290 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
AGF vs Brøndby 3-3 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for AGF vs Brøndby. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
AGF3
Brøndby3Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
AGF3Brøndby3Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 28% | 72% | 53% | 47% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 71% | 64% | 36% |
| 33% | 67% | 68% | 32% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
24%
2-2
18%
X-X
17%
X-1
14%
X-2
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.1%
1-0
10.6%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.6%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-1
3.6%
3-0
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score