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Netherlands vs Germany

Netherlands vs Germany 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

UEFA Nations League - Season 2026/2027 League A (Group Stage) (Round 1)

The match between Netherlands and Germany ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Netherlands win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Netherlands vs Germany — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · UEFA Nations League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Netherlands to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Germany to win.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 32%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 72%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 43%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Netherlands Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Netherlands 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Netherlands 2+ goals.

Our model 64%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 389 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.

Germany Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Germany 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Germany 2+ goals.

Our model 65%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 134 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 65–70%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Netherlands vs Germany 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Netherlands vs Germany. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

UEFA Nations League - Europe

Netherlands1

Germany1

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

· FT

UEFA Nations League - Europe

Netherlands1

Germany1

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

138%

X26%

236%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%	62%	38%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	62%	38%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	31%	69%	64%	36%	85%	15%	95%	5%
	33%	67%	65%	35%	86%	14%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	31%	69%	64%	36%
	33%	67%	65%	35%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	85%	15%	95%	5%
	86%	14%	95%	5%

1st Half

130%

X43%

227%

1st Score

148%

X8%

243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

2-2

21%

X-1

15%

X-X

14%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.0%

1-0

10.1%

0-1

9.2%

0-0

8.2%

2-1

7.5%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

6.4%

0-2

6.0%

2-2

4.7%

3-1

3.8%

1-3

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Netherlands vs Germany — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Netherlands

1/3

Germany

1/3

Both Teams to Score

Netherlands

3/3

Germany

2/3

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Netherlands

3/3

Germany

1/3

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Netherlands

2/3

Germany

3/3

First Half Result

Netherlands

1/3

Germany

1/3

Correct Score

Netherlands

1/3

Germany

1/3

correct predictionwrong prediction