Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)
Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Chelsea to win
Our track record
In 3,433 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.4% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 5,606 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 5,118 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,896 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
Our model’s pick
Chelsea ahead at half-time
Our track record
In 6,631 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Chelsea 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,834 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.8% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
AFC Bournemouth 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,335 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Chelsea–
AFC Bournemouth–Winner
1X 76%
BTTS**
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Chelsea–AFC Bournemouth–Winner
1X 76%
BTTS**
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 47% | 53% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 58% | 42% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22% | 78% | 51% | 49% |
 | 39% | 61% | 71% | 29% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 24% | 90% | 10% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
32%
X-1
17%
X-X
14%
2-2
13%
X-2
8%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.2%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.2%
2-0
7.7%
0-0
7.5%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
6.2%
1-2
5.9%
3-1
4.9%
3-0
4.3%
0-2
3.4%
3-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth — Recent Form
Chelsea have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table. AFC Bournemouth have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table.
Last 5 matches
ChelseaAFC BournemouthOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
ChelseaAFC BournemouthBoth Teams to Score
ChelseaAFC BournemouthOver/Under 2.5 Goals
ChelseaAFC BournemouthOver/Under 3.5 Goals
ChelseaAFC BournemouthFirst Half Result
ChelseaAFC BournemouthCorrect Score
ChelseaAFC Bournemouth