Shot-shy
3/7Fortuna Köln failed to score in 3 of their last 7 (league 21%).
Fortuna Köln vs Saarbrücken Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
3. Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Clinical
Saarbrücken are scoring more goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
+6goals more than their chances (xG) in their last 10
80% of teams scoring this many more goals than their chances scored fewer in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Saarbrücken 45% to winFortuna Köln 29%
Fortuna Köln vs Saarbrücken score prediction
3. Liga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.0 goals in total, a little under the 3. Liga average of 3.3.
goals expected
Fortuna Köln1.5
Saarbrücken1.5Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Fortuna Köln vs Saarbrücken: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Fortuna Köln vs Saarbrücken — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · 3. Liga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Saarbrücken to win
Our model 46%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 3,371 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 59%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 5,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 57%Bookmakers 59%
Our track record
In 5,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.7% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 3,821 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 40%Bookmakers 39%
Our track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Fortuna Köln Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Fortuna Köln 0–1 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 2,627 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Saarbrücken Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Saarbrücken 0–1 goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 811 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Fortuna Köln vs Saarbrücken — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Fortuna Köln vs Saarbrücken. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Fortuna Köln–
Saarbrücken–Winner
X2 72%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Fortuna Köln–Saarbrücken–Winner
X2 72%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Full Time
128%
X25%
246%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 43% | 57% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 56% | 44% | 80% | 20% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34% | 66% | 66% | 34% |
| 22% | 78% | 52% | 48% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 77% | 23% | 91% | 9% |
1st Half
125%
X40%
234%
1st Score
144%
X6%
251%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
26%
1-1
18%
X-X
15%
X-2
14%
X-1
11%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
0-0
5.7%
1-3
4.9%
0-3
4.2%
2-0
3.9%
2-3
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Fortuna Köln vs Saarbrücken: the stats that stand out
3. Liga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Fortuna Köln: shot-shy and slow starters
3/7Slow starters
2/7Fortuna Köln scored first in only 2 of their last 7 (league 48%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Fortuna Köln vs Saarbrücken: attack vs defence
3. Liga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other 3. Liga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Fortuna Köln: weak attack, weak defence (0.89 xG, 1.47 xGA a game)
- Saarbrücken: good attack, weak defence (1.67 xG, 1.42 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Fortuna Köln vs Saarbrücken form and luck check
3. Liga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 3. Liga gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Fortuna KölnBookmakers: 29% to win today. · 7 of 10 games+2.5
- SaarbrückenBookmakers: 45% to win today.Clinical · +6 goals−0.3
Last 5 matches
Fortuna KölnW
L
D
D
W
SaarbrückenW
D
L
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Fortuna Köln 17th of 20 · Saarbrücken 6th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Fortuna Köln vs Saarbrücken: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
3. Liga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent 3. Liga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredFortuna Köln games go over 2.5 goals less often than the 3. Liga average (65%), Saarbrücken games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 65%
Fortuna Köln3 of 7
Saarbrücken7 of 10
BTTSleague 63%
Fortuna Köln4 of 7
Saarbrücken7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 350 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Fortuna Köln vs Saarbrücken corners, cards and goal times
3. Liga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameFortuna Köln: last 7 with these statsFortuna Köln score late
Fortuna Köln
Saarbrücken
4.0
Corners won · league 5.2
7.3
5.0
Corners conceded · league 5.2
3.9
2.1
Cards · league 2.4
2.0
2.4
Opponents' cards · league 2.4
2.5
25%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
35%
50%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
31%
75%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
53%
13%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
16%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →