Flop as favourites
1/7Auckland won only 1 of 7 as favourites (league 40%).
Auckland vs Melbourne City Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
A-League Men - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)
Flop as favourites
Auckland won only 1 of 7 as favourites (league 40%).
1/7Wins as favourite · Auckland
Bookmakers: Auckland 38% to winMelbourne City 33%
Auckland vs Melbourne City score prediction
A-League Men
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.5 goals in total, a little under the A-League Men average of 2.8.
goals expected
Auckland1.4
Melbourne City1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Auckland vs Melbourne City: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Auckland vs Melbourne City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · A-League Men
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Auckland to win
Our model 38%Bookmakers 38%
Our track record
In 2,073 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 54%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 6,400 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 46%
Our track record
In 2,814 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 75%
Our track record
In 4,505 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 41%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 6,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Auckland Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Auckland 0–1 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 3,431 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Melbourne City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Melbourne City 0–1 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,657 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Auckland vs Melbourne City — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Auckland vs Melbourne City. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Auckland–
Melbourne City–Winner
12 75%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Auckland–Melbourne City–Winner
12 75%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Full Time
138%
X25%
237%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 61% | 39% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 70% | 63% | 37% |
| 30% | 70% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 84% | 16% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
126%
X41%
233%
1st Score
142%
X7%
251%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
26%
1-1
20%
X-X
14%
X-2
14%
X-1
11%
2-X
6%
1-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.6%
1-0
9.5%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.3%
0-0
7.0%
2-0
6.0%
0-2
5.8%
2-2
5.3%
1-3
3.6%
3-1
3.6%
3-0
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Auckland vs Melbourne City: the stats that stand out
A-League Men
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Auckland: flop as favourites and always on the scoresheet · Melbourne City: fast starters
1/7Fast starters
6/9Melbourne City scored first in 6 of 9 recent matches with goal times (league 47%).
Always on the scoresheet
1/10Auckland failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 23%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Auckland vs Melbourne City: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
A-League Men
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 A-League Men gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Auckland and Melbourne City games more often than the A-League Men average (60%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 56%
Auckland5 of 10
Melbourne City6 of 10
BTTSleague 60%
Auckland7 of 10
Melbourne City6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 163 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Auckland vs Melbourne City form and luck check
A-League Men
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 A-League Men gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- AucklandBookmakers: 38% to win today. · 9 of 10 games−0.5
- Melbourne CityBookmakers: 33% to win today. · 9 of 10 games+1.9
Last 5 matches
Melbourne City3rd in table0 pts from last 5Auckland12th in table0 pts from last 5W
D
L
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
How we measure →Auckland vs Melbourne City corners, cards and goal times
A-League Men
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameAuckland: last 9 with these statsMelbourne City: last 9 with these statsGoal times close to the A-League Men average
Auckland
Melbourne City
5.8
Corners won · league 5.1
5.3
4.4
Corners conceded · league 5.1
5.1
2.7
Cards · league 1.9
2.2
1.8
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
1.4
31%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
50%
31%
Goals after 75' · league 22%
14%
60%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
25%
10%
Conceded after 75' · league 22%
50%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →