Shot-shy
4/10Wellington Phoenix failed to score in 4 of their last 10 (league 23%).
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
A-League Men - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)
Shot-shy
Wellington Phoenix failed to score in 4 of their last 10 (league 23%).
4/10Failed to score · Wellington Phoenix
Bookmakers: Wellington Phoenix 31% to winMelbourne Victory 43%
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory score prediction
A-League Men
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Melbourne Victory expected to create clearly more
2.9 goals in total, a little over the A-League Men average of 2.8.
goals expected
Wellington Phoenix1.2
Melbourne Victory1.7Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · A-League Men
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Melbourne Victory to win
Our model 46%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 3,442 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 55%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 5,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 5,104 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 69%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 3,906 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 40%Bookmakers 39%
Our track record
In 6,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Wellington Phoenix Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Wellington Phoenix 0–1 goals
Our model 68%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 2,665 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Melbourne Victory Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Melbourne Victory 0–1 goals
Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Wellington Phoenix–
Melbourne Victory–Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Wellington Phoenix–Melbourne Victory–Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
129%
X25%
246%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 22% | 78% | 46% | 54% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 65% | 68% | 32% |
| 23% | 77% | 54% | 46% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 12% | 96% | 4% |
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
1st Half
122%
X40%
238%
1st Score
136%
X6%
258%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
32%
X-2
18%
1-1
13%
X-X
13%
X-1
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
9.3%
0-2
7.5%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
7.1%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
5.8%
1-3
4.6%
2-0
4.5%
0-3
4.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory: the stats that stand out
A-League Men
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Wellington Phoenix: shot-shy · Melbourne Victory: leaky
4/10Leaky
1/10Melbourne Victory kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 23%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
A-League Men
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 A-League Men gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Wellington Phoenix games less often than the A-League Men average (60%), in Melbourne Victory games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 56%
Wellington Phoenix5 of 10
Melbourne Victory6 of 10
BTTSleague 60%
Wellington Phoenix4 of 10
Melbourne Victory7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 163 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory form and luck check
A-League Men
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 A-League Men gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Wellington PhoenixBookmakers: 31% to win today.+2.4
- Melbourne VictoryBookmakers: 43% to win today.−0.8
Last 5 matches
Melbourne Victory6th in table0 pts from last 5Wellington Phoenix9th in table0 pts from last 5W
D
L
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
How we measure →Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory corners, cards and goal times
A-League Men
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the A-League Men average
Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne Victory
6.8
Corners won · league 5.1
6.2
5.0
Corners conceded · league 5.1
5.6
1.9
Cards · league 1.9
1.7
1.9
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
1.8
30%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
40%
30%
Goals after 75' · league 22%
20%
71%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
50%
12%
Conceded after 75' · league 22%
33%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →