Shot-shy
5/10Grazer AK failed to score in 5 of their last 10 (league 25%).
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Admiral Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Wasteful
Sturm Graz are scoring fewer goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
−4goals fewer than their chances (xG) in their last 10
77% of teams scoring this many fewer goals than their chances scored more in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Sturm Graz 57% to winGrazer AK 20%
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK score prediction
Admiral Bundesliga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Sturm Graz expected to create clearly more
2.8 goals in total, in line with the Admiral Bundesliga average of 2.8.
goals expected
Sturm Graz1.8Grazer AK1.0Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Admiral Bundesliga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Sturm Graz to win
Our model 42%Bookmakers 57%
Our track record
In 3,556 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.7% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 55%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 6,400 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 57%
Our track record
In 5,104 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 70%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,906 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 42%Bookmakers 39%
Our track record
In 2,171 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.
Sturm Graz Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Sturm Graz 0–1 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 990 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 55–60%.
Grazer AK Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Grazer AK 0–1 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 3,224 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Sturm Graz–
Grazer AK–Winner
1X 67%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Sturm Graz–Grazer AK–Winner
1X 67%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
142%
X25%
233%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 47% | 53% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 60% | 40% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26% | 74% | 58% | 42% |
| 33% | 67% | 66% | 34% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
| 86% | 14% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
129%
X42%
229%
1st Score
146%
X7%
247%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
2-2
19%
X-X
15%
X-1
14%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.7%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
7.4%
0-0
6.9%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
5.3%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
4.2%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK: the stats that stand out
Admiral Bundesliga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Grazer AK: shot-shy · Sturm Graz: fast starters and banker as favourites
5/10Fast starters
7/10Sturm Graz scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Banker as favourites
5/7Sturm Graz won 5 of 7 as favourites (league 49%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK: attack vs defence
Admiral Bundesliga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Admiral Bundesliga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Sturm Graz: good attack, good defence (1.91 xG, 1.48 xGA a game)
- Grazer AK: weak attack, weak defence (1.42 xG, 1.64 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK form and luck check
Admiral Bundesliga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Admiral Bundesliga gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Sturm GrazBookmakers: 57% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals+2.6
- Grazer AKBookmakers: 20% to win today.+0.5
Last 5 matches
Sturm GrazW
L
W
L
D
Grazer AKD
D
W
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Sturm Graz 4th of 12 · Grazer AK 7th of 12
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 12 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Admiral Bundesliga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Admiral Bundesliga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Sturm Graz and Grazer AK games less often than the Admiral Bundesliga average (57%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 55%
Sturm Graz4 of 10
Grazer AK7 of 10
BTTSleague 57%
Sturm Graz5 of 10
Grazer AK4 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 187 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK corners, cards and goal times
Admiral Bundesliga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Admiral Bundesliga average
Sturm Graz
Grazer AK
7.7
Corners won · league 4.9
4.1
4.4
Corners conceded · league 4.9
5.2
2.2
Cards · league 2.1
2.9
1.6
Opponents' cards · league 2.1
1.7
44%
Goals before half-time · league 48%
45%
31%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
27%
55%
Conceded before half-time · league 48%
61%
27%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
17%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Sturm Graz2/5
Grazer AK1/5
Both Teams to Score
Sturm Graz3/5
Grazer AK3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Sturm Graz4/5
Grazer AK2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Sturm Graz4/5
Grazer AK4/5
First Half Result
Sturm Graz2/5
Grazer AK2/5
Correct Score
Sturm Graz1/5
Grazer AK0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction