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FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Get our AI football prediction and stats for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win

Our model 39%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,079 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 43.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Our model 59%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,606 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Our model 57%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 5,240 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Our model 65%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 2,339 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.2% of the time (bookmakers said 63.0%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Our model 37%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 2,015 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

FSV Mainz 05 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FSV Mainz 05 0–1 goals

Our model 60%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,399 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–1 goals

Our model 58%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities

Below are our AI-generated match predictions for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.

Bundesliga - Germany

FSV Mainz 05–

Bayer 04 Leverkusen–

Winner

12 75%

BTTS**

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Bundesliga - Germany

FSV Mainz 05–

Bayer 04 Leverkusen–

Winner

12 75%

BTTS**

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

136%

X25%

239%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	21%	79%	43%	57%	55%	45%	79%	21%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	21%	79%	43%	57%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	55%	45%	79%	21%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	29%	71%	60%	40%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	27%	73%	58%	42%	81%	19%	93%	7%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	29%	71%	60%	40%
	27%	73%	58%	42%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	81%	19%	93%	7%

1st Half

130%

X37%

233%

1st Score

146%

X6%

248%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

25%

1-1

22%

X-X

14%

X-1

12%

X-2

11%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.7%

1-2

8.2%

2-1

8.0%

0-1

8.0%

1-0

7.5%

2-2

6.4%

0-2

5.8%

0-0

5.7%

2-0

5.4%

1-3

4.2%

3-1

3.9%

2-3

3.2%

3-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Recent Form

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 matches and currently sit 6th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

FSV Mainz 05

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

FSV Mainz 05

2/4

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

2/4

Both Teams to Score

FSV Mainz 05

2/4

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

2/4

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

FSV Mainz 05

3/4

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

3/4

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

FSV Mainz 05

1/4

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

1/4

First Half Result

FSV Mainz 05

3/4

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

1/4

Correct Score

FSV Mainz 05

0/4

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0/4

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction