Fast starters
8/10Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored first in 8 of their last 10 (league 48%).
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)
Riding their luck
SC Freiburg are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+5points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: SC Freiburg 20% to winBayer 04 Leverkusen 58%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg score prediction
Bundesliga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen expected to create clearly more
3.3 goals in total, in line with the Bundesliga average of 3.3.
goals expected
Bayer 04 Leverkusen2.1
SC Freiburg1.3Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win
Our model 56%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 1,739 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 54%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 6,319 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 54%Bookmakers 64%
Our track record
In 5,016 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 68%Bookmakers 57%
Our track record
In 3,821 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Bayer 04 Leverkusen ahead at half-time
Our model 40%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 1,968 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2+ goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 2,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
SC Freiburg Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
SC Freiburg 0–1 goals
Our model 75%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,536 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen–
SC Freiburg–Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen–SC Freiburg–Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Full Time
155%
X24%
220%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 46% | 54% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 58% | 42% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18% | 82% | 47% | 53% |
| 43% | 57% | 75% | 25% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 27% | 89% | 11% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
140%
X40%
220%
1st Score
161%
X6%
232%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
35%
X-1
17%
X-X
14%
2-2
11%
X-2
7%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.0%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
10.4%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
6.4%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
2-2
5.4%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
5.2%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: the stats that stand out
Bundesliga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Bayer 04 Leverkusen: fast starters and always on the scoresheet
8/10Always on the scoresheet
0/10Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored in all of their last 10 (league 21% fail to score).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: attack vs defence
Bundesliga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Bundesliga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: good attack, good defence (2.18 xG, 1.59 xGA a game)
- SC Freiburg: weak attack, good defence (1.37 xG, 1.17 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg form and luck check
Bundesliga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Bundesliga gamesSC Freiburg are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- Bayer 04 LeverkusenBookmakers: 58% to win today.Wasteful · −5 goals−2.0
- SC FreiburgBookmakers: 20% to win today.Clinical · +7 goals+4.8
Last 5 matches
SC FreiburgD
W
W
W
Bayer 04 LeverkusenW
D
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3rd of 15 · SC Freiburg 7th of 15
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 15 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Bundesliga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Bundesliga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Bayer 04 Leverkusen games more often than the Bundesliga average (63%), in SC Freiburg games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 66%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen7 of 10
SC Freiburg7 of 10
BTTSleague 63%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen7 of 10
SC Freiburg6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 288 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg corners, cards and goal times
Bundesliga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Bundesliga average
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
7.9
Corners won · league 4.9
3.6
3.7
Corners conceded · league 4.9
4.1
1.4
Cards · league 1.9
1.4
2.1
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
1.6
50%
Goals before half-time · league 43%
45%
30%
Goals after 75' · league 26%
23%
38%
Conceded before half-time · league 43%
54%
23%
Conceded after 75' · league 26%
15%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen2/4
SC Freiburg2/4
Both Teams to Score
Bayer 04 Leverkusen2/4
SC Freiburg2/4
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Bayer 04 Leverkusen3/4
SC Freiburg3/4
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Bayer 04 Leverkusen1/4
SC Freiburg1/4
First Half Result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen1/4
SC Freiburg0/4
Correct Score
Bayer 04 Leverkusen0/4
SC Freiburg0/4
correct predictionwrong prediction