Burnley vs Derby County Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Burnley vs Derby County — Championship Prediction Accuracy
Season 2026/2027 · Round 8 · Regular Season
Full-Time Result
42.7% implied
Derby County28.6%2/7-33%Below implied probability
Burnley57.1%4/7+33.7%Strongly above implied probabilityBoth Teams To Score
54.4% implied
Derby County42.9%3/7-21.1%Below implied probabilityBurnley57.1%4/7+5%Above implied probabilityOver/Under 2.5 Goals
53.9% implied
Derby County71.4%5/7+32.5%Strongly above implied probabilityBurnley42.9%3/7-20.4%Below implied probabilityOver/Under 3.5 Goals
59.3% implied
Derby County85.7%6/7+44.5%Strongly above implied probabilityBurnley42.9%3/7-27.7%Below implied probabilityFirst Half Result
37.7% implied
Derby County14.3%1/7-62.1%Below implied probabilityBurnley42.9%3/7+13.8%Strongly above implied probabilityDerby County0/7Burnley2/7Our AI model tracks prediction accuracy for Burnley and Derby County across 6 betting markets. The cards above compare per-team accuracy against a bookmaker-implied probability baseline for each betting market.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals predictions for Derby County hit at 86% accuracy — that's 44.5% above the bookmaker baseline of 59.3%, suggesting genuine betting value.
On the other hand, First Half Result predictions for Derby County sit 62.1% below the bookmaker baseline — pricing is sharper here, so extra caution is warranted.
Burnley vs Derby County — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Burnley vs Derby County. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Burnley–
Derby County–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS**
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Burnley–Derby County–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS**
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 52% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27% | 73% | 60% | 40% |
| 34% | 66% | 68% | 32% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
2-2
19%
X-X
16%
X-1
13%
X-2
13%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.4%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
2-2
5.4%
0-2
5.1%
3-1
4.1%
3-0
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Burnley vs Derby County — Prediction Form & Streaks
Derby County have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 22th in the table. Burnley have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 24th in the table.
Our football prediction algorithm has been reading Derby County well in the Over/Under 3.5 Goals market, landing 5 correct predictions in a row. This level of consistency suggests a strong betting opportunity worth considering.
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