Leaky
0/10NEC kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 20%).
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)
Clinical
FC Groningen are scoring more goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
+5goals more than their chances (xG) in their last 10
80% of teams scoring this many more goals than their chances scored fewer in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: FC Groningen 30% to winNEC 46%
NEC vs FC Groningen score prediction
Eredivisie
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.4 goals in total, a little over the Eredivisie average of 3.3.
goals expected
NEC1.9
FC Groningen1.5Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for NEC vs FC Groningen: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
NEC vs FC Groningen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eredivisie
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
NEC to win
Our model 51%Bookmakers 46%
Our track record
In 2,466 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 63%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,450 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 62%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 3,067 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 2,352 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 39%Bookmakers 38%
Our track record
In 2,020 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
NEC Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
NEC 2+ goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 2,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
FC Groningen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Groningen 0–1 goals
Our model 67%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 3,241 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
NEC vs FC Groningen — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for NEC vs FC Groningen. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
NEC–
FC Groningen–Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 50%
NEC–FC Groningen–Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 50%
Full Time
151%
X23%
226%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 38% | 62% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 50% | 50% | 75% | 25% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18% | 82% | 45% | 55% |
| 36% | 64% | 67% | 33% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 29% | 88% | 12% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
138%
X39%
223%
1st Score
158%
X4%
238%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
16%
2-2
14%
X-X
13%
X-2
9%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
6.5%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.0%
3-0
4.5%
0-0
4.3%
3-2
4.0%
0-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
NEC vs FC Groningen: the stats that stand out
Eredivisie
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%NEC: leaky · FC Groningen: fast starters
0/10Fast starters
7/10FC Groningen scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 48%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →NEC vs FC Groningen: attack vs defence
Eredivisie
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Eredivisie teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- NEC: good attack, good defence (1.78 xG, 1.45 xGA a game)
- FC Groningen: weak attack, weak defence (1.60 xG, 1.76 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →NEC vs FC Groningen form and luck check
Eredivisie
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Eredivisie gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- NECBookmakers: 46% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−3.9
- FC GroningenBookmakers: 30% to win today.Clinical · +5 goals+3.8
Last 5 matches
FC GroningenW
W
D
D
L
NECD
D
L
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: NEC 6th of 18 · FC Groningen 7th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →NEC vs FC Groningen: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Eredivisie
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Eredivisie gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in NEC and FC Groningen games more often than the Eredivisie average (64%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 62%
NEC8 of 10
FC Groningen8 of 10
BTTSleague 64%
NEC9 of 10
FC Groningen8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 309 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →NEC vs FC Groningen corners, cards and goal times
Eredivisie
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameFC Groningen score early
NEC
FC Groningen
5.8
Corners won · league 5.3
4.2
3.9
Corners conceded · league 5.3
5.0
1.5
Cards · league 1.6
1.3
1.9
Opponents' cards · league 1.6
1.3
50%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
64%
25%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
14%
47%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
59%
12%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
12%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
NEC1/5
FC Groningen1/5
Both Teams to Score
NEC4/5
FC Groningen4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
NEC3/5
FC Groningen4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
NEC3/5
FC Groningen2/5
First Half Result
NEC2/5
FC Groningen1/5
Correct Score
NEC1/5
FC Groningen1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction