Brick wall
5/10Ajax kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 20%).
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Unlucky
NEC are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−6points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: NEC 10% to winAjax 74%
Ajax vs NEC score prediction
Eredivisie
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Ajax expected to create clearly more
3.4 goals in total, a little over the Eredivisie average of 3.3.
goals expected
Ajax2.1
NEC1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Ajax vs NEC: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Ajax vs NEC — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eredivisie
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ajax to win
Our model 66%Bookmakers 74%
Our track record
In 593 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.0% of the time (bookmakers said 71.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 59%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 5,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 67%Bookmakers 73%
Our track record
In 1,089 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 57%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 236 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.2% than to our 55–60%.
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ajax ahead at half-time
Our model 57%Bookmakers 57%
Our track record
In 295 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.1%).
Ajax Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ajax 2+ goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 79%
Our track record
In 2,625 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
NEC Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
NEC 0–1 goals
Our model 77%Bookmakers 74%
Our track record
In 2,531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Ajax vs NEC — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Ajax vs NEC. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Ajax–
NEC–Winner
1 66%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
2-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 67%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
Ajax–NEC–Winner
1 66%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
2-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 67%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
Full Time
166%
X18%
216%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 15% | 85% | 33% | 67% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 47% | 53% | 71% | 29% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12% | 88% | 34% | 66% |
| 47% | 53% | 77% | 23% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59% | 41% | 80% | 20% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
157%
X28%
215%
1st Score
173%
X3%
223%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
48%
X-1
18%
X-X
8%
2-2
8%
2-1
5%
X-2
4%
2-X
4%
1-X
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
2-1
10.6%
2-0
8.2%
1-1
8.0%
3-1
8.0%
1-0
7.9%
3-0
7.1%
1-2
5.0%
2-2
4.9%
3-2
4.2%
0-1
3.6%
0-0
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Ajax vs NEC: the stats that stand out
Eredivisie
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Ajax: brick wall and hard to break · NEC: flop as favourites
5/10Hard to break
1/9Ajax conceded first in only 1 of 9 recent matches with goal times (league 48%).
Flop as favourites
3/9NEC won only 3 of 9 as favourites (league 52%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Ajax vs NEC: attack vs defence
Eredivisie
How to read it
other Eredivisie teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Ajax: good attack, good defence (2.38 xG, 1.07 xGA a game)
- NEC: good attack, good defence (1.90 xG, 1.36 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Ajax vs NEC form and luck check
Eredivisie
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Eredivisie gamesNEC are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- AjaxBookmakers: 74% to win today. · 9 of 10 games−3.2
- NECBookmakers: 10% to win today.Wasteful · −5 goals−5.7
Last 5 matches
AjaxD
W
W
L
W
NECD
L
D
L
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Ajax 3rd of 18 · NEC 6th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Ajax vs NEC: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Eredivisie
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Eredivisie gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in NEC games more often than the Eredivisie average (64%), in Ajax games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 63%
Ajax6 of 10
NEC8 of 10
BTTSleague 64%
Ajax5 of 10
NEC9 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 300 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Ajax vs NEC corners, cards and goal times
Eredivisie
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameAjax: last 9 with these statsGoal times close to the Eredivisie average
Ajax
NEC
7.3
Corners won · league 5.3
6.3
2.8
Corners conceded · league 5.3
3.5
1.9
Cards · league 1.6
1.6
1.8
Opponents' cards · league 1.6
1.9
39%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
44%
26%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
31%
44%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
47%
33%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
12%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
NEC2/5
Ajax3/5
Both Teams to Score
NEC4/5
Ajax4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
NEC4/5
Ajax5/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
NEC2/5
Ajax0/5
First Half Result
NEC2/5
Ajax3/5
Correct Score
NEC1/5
Ajax0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction