Hard to break
1/10Varaždin conceded first in only 1 of 10 recent matches with goal times (league 46%).
HNL Predictions & Stats
Free AI predictions for every upcoming HNL match — 1X2, Both Teams to Score, Over/Under goals and Correct Score probabilities.
Predictions updated on 11 October 2026.
1. HNL Predictions by Market
Season 2026/2027 · Round 9 · Regular Season
Full-Time Result
53%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Both Teams To Score
49%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
59%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
67%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
First Half Result
55%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Correct Score
12%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
1. HNL 2026/2027 prediction accuracy over the last 100 matches: 1X2 53%, BTTS 49%, Over/Under 2.5 59%, Over/Under 3.5 67%, correct score 12%.
HNL stats: goals, BTTS, corners and cards vs other leagues
How this competition ranks among the leagues and cups we cover for goals, chances (xG), corners and cards.
How to read it
last 12 months · 177 matchesrank 1 = highest of 63 competitionsHome fortress
Goals a match
2.81
21st of 63
xG a match
2.74
38th of 62
Corners a match
9.35
40th of 62
Cards a match
4.13
30th of 63
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We use the league's matches from the last 12 months, without qualifying rounds, and rank it against the 63 leagues and club competitions with 50 or more matches in that time (1 = highest). A label marks a league in the top fifth on goals, home or away wins, draws, cards or corners, or in the bottom fifth on goals. xG is our estimate of each match's chances from its shots.
HNL: the stats that stand out
The HNL teams most unusual in their last 10 games.
How to read it
the teamleague averageeach team's last 10 games1/10Goal-fests
8/9Rudeš games went over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 (league 52%).
Fast starters
8/10Osijek scored first in 8 of 10 recent matches with goal times (league 46%).
Brick wall
5/10Rijeka kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 28%).
Shot-shy
5/10Slaven Koprivnica failed to score in 5 of their last 10 (league 28%).
Banker as favourites
6/8Hajduk Split won 6 of 8 as favourites (league 55%).
Goals at both ends
7/10Lokomotiva Zagreb: both teams scored in 7 of their last 10 (league 53%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each stat we show the club that stands out most, one club per stat. A fact needs at least 6 games and a result far enough from the league average to be unusual (at least one standard deviation).
How we measure →Today's Betting Tips for 1. HNL Croatia
Free predictions for today's HNL matches: 1X2, both teams to score, over/under and correct score.
Lokomotiva Zagreb0
Varaždin1Winner
X2 73%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
· FT
Lokomotiva Zagreb0Varaždin1Winner
X2 73%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
127%
X28%
245%
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36% | 64% | 69% | 31% |
| 23% | 77% | 55% | 45% |
Goals Over/Under
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 48% | 52% | 60% | 40% |
Correct Score
1-1
12.5%
0-1
9.5%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
7.0%
1-0
7.0%
0-2
6.9%
2-2
6.0%
Slaven Koprivnica4
Rijeka1Winner
2 52%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
· FT
Slaven Koprivnica4Rijeka1Winner
2 52%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Rudeš–Rijeka–Winner
2 72%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
0-2 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
Rudeš–Rijeka–Winner
2 72%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
0-2 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
Lokomotiva Zagreb–
Istra 1961–Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Lokomotiva Zagreb–Istra 1961–Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Osijek–
Gorica–Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Osijek–Gorica–Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Hajduk Split–Varaždin–Winner
1 57%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-0 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 57%
Hajduk Split–Varaždin–Winner
1 57%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-0 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 57%
Slaven Koprivnica–
Dinamo Zagreb–Winner
2 58%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-2 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Slaven Koprivnica–Dinamo Zagreb–Winner
2 58%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-2 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Dinamo Zagreb–Rijeka–Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Dinamo Zagreb–Rijeka–Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Varaždin–Slaven Koprivnica–Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Varaždin–Slaven Koprivnica–Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Istra 1961–Hajduk Split–Winner
2 55%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-2 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Istra 1961–Hajduk Split–Winner
2 55%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-2 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Gorica–Lokomotiva Zagreb–Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Gorica–Lokomotiva Zagreb–Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Osijek–Rudeš–Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Osijek–Rudeš–Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
HNL xG: chances created and allowed
Every HNL team's chances created and allowed a game, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
each logo is a team · tap one for detailseach logo is a team · hover one for detailsHNL average · 1.48 xG, 1.46 xGAlast 10 games eachTap a logo to see the team's numbers
↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
Teams by box· 10
Good attack, good defence
Weak attack, weak defence
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →HNL Results vs the Odds
Season 2026/2027 and the last 30 days
How often each result has happened in HNL this season (thick bar) and in the last 30 days (thin bar), next to what the bookmakers’ closing odds expected. The last 30 days cover fewer matches, so their normal range is wider and big swings there are still normal. This is not our prediction accuracy.
How to read it
what the closing odds expectednormal range: chance alone lands here 19 times in 20gap to the odds, in percentage pointsgap outside the normal rangethick bar: Season · thin bar: 30 days
Result · happened
◀ fewer −30◀ fewer than expected · −30 pts odds expected+30 more ▶+30 pts · more than expected ▶
Verdict
Home wins
42 matches
59.5%
Season (42) · 59.5% vs 47.1%
Season
+12.5
±13.5
30 days (13) · 46.2% vs 45.2%
30 days
+1.0
±24.6
Draws
42 matches
19.0%
Season (42) · 19.0% vs 22.7%
Season
−3.6
±12.6
30 days (13) · 30.8% vs 23.1%
30 days
+7.6
±22.8
Away wins
42 matches
21.4%
Season (42) · 21.4% vs 30.3%
Season
−8.8
±12.6
30 days (13) · 23.1% vs 31.7%
30 days
−8.6
±23.1
Over 2.5 goals
42 matches
66.7%
Season (42) · 66.7% vs 55.9%
Season
+10.8
±14.9
30 days (13) · 69.2% vs 56.8%
30 days
+12.5
±26.6
Both teams scored
42 matches
54.8%
Season (42) · 54.8% vs 52.3%
Season
+2.5
±15.0
30 days (13) · 69.2% vs 54.1%
30 days
+15.1
±27.0
Show more markets (6)Show fewer markets
Over 3.5 goals
42 matches
45.2%
Season (42) · 45.2% vs 33.9%
Season
+11.3
±14.1
30 days (13) · 46.2% vs 34.7%
30 days
+11.5
±25.5
Home side ahead at half-time
42 matches
45.2%
Season (42) · 45.2% vs 36.5%
Season
+8.7
±13.7
30 days (13) · 38.5% vs 35.5%
30 days
+3.0
±24.7
Level at half-time
42 matches
35.7%
Season (42) · 35.7% vs 38.5%
Season
−2.7
±14.6
30 days (13) · 53.8% vs 38.5%
30 days
+15.4
±26.3
Away side ahead at half-time
42 matches
19.0%
Season (42) · 19.0% vs 25.0%
Season
−6.0
±12.5
30 days (13) · 7.7% vs 26.1%
30 days
−18.4
±22.9
Home team scored 2+
41 matches
65.9%
Season (41) · 65.9% vs 48.2%More than expected
Season
+17.7
±14.2More than expected
30 days (13) · 53.8% vs 47.7%
30 days
+6.2
±25.3
Away team scored 2+
42 matches
38.1%
Season (42) · 38.1% vs 34.6%
Season
+3.5
±13.6
30 days (13) · 53.8% vs 36.4%
30 days
+17.4
±24.9
Outside the normal range this season: Home team scored 2+ 65.9% vs 48.2% expected (chance alone: about 1 in 70).
Shows what happened, not what comes next. Closing odds from one bookmaker per match, bookmaker margin removed. Updated daily.
Show as a tableHide the table
| Result | Period | Matches | Happened | Odds expected | Gap (pts) | Normal range (± pts) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home wins | Season | 42 | 59.5% | 47.1% | +12.5 | ±13.5 | Normal range |
| Home wins | 30 days | 13 | 46.2% | 45.2% | +1.0 | ±24.6 | Normal range |
| Draws | Season | 42 | 19.0% | 22.7% | −3.6 | ±12.6 | Normal range |
| Draws | 30 days | 13 | 30.8% | 23.1% | +7.6 | ±22.8 | Normal range |
| Away wins | Season | 42 | 21.4% | 30.3% | −8.8 | ±12.6 | Normal range |
| Away wins | 30 days | 13 | 23.1% | 31.7% | −8.6 | ±23.1 | Normal range |
| Over 2.5 goals | Season | 42 | 66.7% | 55.9% | +10.8 | ±14.9 | Normal range |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30 days | 13 | 69.2% | 56.8% | +12.5 | ±26.6 | Normal range |
| Both teams scored | Season | 42 | 54.8% | 52.3% | +2.5 | ±15.0 | Normal range |
| Both teams scored | 30 days | 13 | 69.2% | 54.1% | +15.1 | ±27.0 | Normal range |
| Over 3.5 goals | Season | 42 | 45.2% | 33.9% | +11.3 | ±14.1 | Normal range |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30 days | 13 | 46.2% | 34.7% | +11.5 | ±25.5 | Normal range |
| Home side ahead at half-time | Season | 42 | 45.2% | 36.5% | +8.7 | ±13.7 | Normal range |
| Home side ahead at half-time | 30 days | 13 | 38.5% | 35.5% | +3.0 | ±24.7 | Normal range |
| Level at half-time | Season | 42 | 35.7% | 38.5% | −2.7 | ±14.6 | Normal range |
| Level at half-time | 30 days | 13 | 53.8% | 38.5% | +15.4 | ±26.3 | Normal range |
| Away side ahead at half-time | Season | 42 | 19.0% | 25.0% | −6.0 | ±12.5 | Normal range |
| Away side ahead at half-time | 30 days | 13 | 7.7% | 26.1% | −18.4 | ±22.9 | Normal range |
| Home team scored 2+ | Season | 41 | 65.9% | 48.2% | +17.7 | ±14.2 | More than expected |
| Home team scored 2+ | 30 days | 13 | 53.8% | 47.7% | +6.2 | ±25.3 | Normal range |
| Away team scored 2+ | Season | 42 | 38.1% | 34.6% | +3.5 | ±13.6 | Normal range |
| Away team scored 2+ | 30 days | 13 | 53.8% | 36.4% | +17.4 | ±24.9 | Normal range |
HNL luck check: the last 10 games
HNL teams taking more or fewer points than their chances usually bring, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringnormal range (±4)outside itEvery team in line with their chances
Points in line, but wasteful: Gorica (−5 goals), Slaven Koprivnica (−4). Clinical: Rudeš (+5, 9 games), Hajduk Split (+4).
In line with their chances: Varaždin, Osijek, Lokomotiva Zagreb, Istra 1961, Rijeka and Dinamo Zagreb.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
How we measure →HNL last week: smash-and-grab wins and upsets
Smash-and-grab wins (the side with clearly fewer chances won) and upsets (results the closing odds gave under 20%) from the last 7 days.
How to read it
Oct 4–Oct 11 · 5 matches · odds: closing, margin removed
Gorica1-2RudešSmash-and-grabRudeš beat Gorica 2-1 despite fewer chances (xG 0.9 vs 2.0).
UpsetBookmakers gave Rudeš 17.7% to win at kick-off.
- Slaven Koprivnica4-1Rijeka
UpsetBookmakers gave Slaven Koprivnica 17.8% to win at kick-off.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Smash-and-grab: the winner had at least 0.8 less xG than the loser (our xG, from shots). Upset: the result the closing odds gave under 20%, with the bookmaker margin removed. Across our leagues about 6% of matches are smash-and-grab wins and about 5% are upsets.
How we measure →HNL Standings
Check the current league table, team positions, points, and form. Click to view complete standings with detailed statistics.
#TEAM | MP | PTS | W | D | L | G | GD | FORM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1  Hajduk Split | 9 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18:9 | +9 | W L W W W |
2  Varaždin | 9 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14:7 | +7 | W D D D W |
3  Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18:11 | +7 | L W L W D |
4  Osijek | 9 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18:14 | +4 | L D W L W |
5  Rijeka | 8 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14:11 | +3 | L W D W D |
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
Relegation
MP=Matches Played
PTS=Points
W=Wins
D=Draws
L=Losses
G=Goals (For:Against)
GD=Goal Difference
FORM=Last 5 Matches
About HNL
The league profile compares HNL with the 63 leagues and cups we rank over the last 12 months (rank 1 = highest). The stats that stand out pick the most unusual numbers from each team's last 10 games. The attack vs defence chart puts each team in one of four boxes: top right creates more and allows fewer chances than the league average. The luck check shows who got more or fewer points than their chances in the last 10 games, and Last week lists wins with fewer chances and results the bookmakers gave under 20%.
These statistics represent prediction accuracy based on the last 100 matches in the league. Accuracy reflects how often the model correctly predicted the outcome for each market. Our football predictions are generated using advanced AI techniques combined with historical match data, team form, player availability, tactical trends, and head-to-head records to deliver reliable forecasts. Explore our prediction results tracker for live accuracy across all completed matches, our league accuracy data for competition-level breakdowns, or prediction performance for team-level insights.
The Croatian First Football League, also known as the Prva HNL, is the top professional football league in Croatia. It consists of 10 teams and operates on a system of promotion and relegation with the Croatian Second Football League. The Croatian First Football League is known for its competitive matches and talented players. GNK Dinamo Zagreb is the most successful club in Croatian football history, having won numerous league titles.