Heracles Almelo vs FC Utrecht 2-0 Score & Prediction Review
KNVB Beker - Season 2024/2025 Quarter-finals (Knock Out)
Heracles Almelo2–0
FC UtrechtOn these chances Heracles Almelo would usually take 1.1 points and FC Utrecht 1.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Utrecht.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Heracles Almelo vs FC Utrecht stats: how the match was played
KNVB Beker
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
FC Utrecht had clearly more shots on target
Heracles Almelo
FC Utrecht
5
Shots on target
7
4
Big chances
4
3
Corners
2
2
Yellow cards
1
50%
Possession
50%
Heracles Almelo vs FC Utrecht — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · KNVB Beker
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FC Utrecht to win
WrongOur track record
In 1,782 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 6,424 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,272 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,360 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).
Our model’s pick
FC Utrecht ahead at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,199 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Heracles Almelo 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.6%).
Our model’s pick
FC Utrecht 2+ goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: FC Utrecht 0–1 goals.
Our track record
In 620 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Heracles Almelo vs FC Utrecht 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Heracles Almelo vs FC Utrecht. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Heracles Almelo2
FC Utrecht0Winner
2 59%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
0-2 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Heracles Almelo2FC Utrecht0Winner
2 59%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
0-2 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 44% | 56% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 54% | 77% | 23% |
| 17% | 83% | 43% | 57% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
| 70% | 30% | 85% | 15% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
36%
X-2
20%
X-X
12%
1-1
11%
X-1
7%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
0-2
10.5%
1-1
10.1%
0-1
9.9%
1-2
9.1%
1-3
5.8%
0-3
5.7%
1-0
5.5%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
5.1%
2-1
4.9%
2-3
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score