Leeds United vs Manchester United Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)
Leeds United are taking more points than their chances usually bring
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Leeds United vs Manchester United score prediction
Premier League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.9 goals in total, a little over the Premier League average of 2.8.
goals expected
Leeds United1.3
Manchester United1.5Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Leeds United vs Manchester United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Manchester United to win
Our track record
In 3,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.7% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 6,315 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 2,766 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 6,500 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Leeds United 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 2,625 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Our model’s pick
Manchester United 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 2,605 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Leeds United vs Manchester United — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Leeds United vs Manchester United. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Leeds United–
Manchester United–Winner
X2 69%
BTTS*
Yes 50%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Leeds United–Manchester United–Winner
X2 69%
BTTS*
Yes 50%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 65% | 69% | 31% |
| 29% | 71% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
25%
1-1
18%
X-X
15%
X-2
14%
X-1
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.6%
0-1
11.1%
0-0
9.4%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
5.2%
2-2
5.0%
1-3
3.7%
0-3
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Leeds United vs Manchester United: attack vs defence
Premier League
How to read it
other Premier League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Leeds United: weak attack, weak defence (1.26 xG, 1.57 xGA a game)
- Manchester United: good attack, good defence (1.98 xG, 1.26 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Leeds United vs Manchester United form and luck check
Premier League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premier League gamesLeeds United are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- Leeds UnitedBookmakers: 32% to win today.+5.5
- Manchester UnitedBookmakers: 42% to win today.−0.5
Last 5 matches
Leeds UnitedManchester UnitedStrength rank: Leeds United 11th of 20 · Manchester United 3rd of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Leeds United vs Manchester United: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premier League
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premier League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredLeeds United games go over 2.5 goals less often than the Premier League average (55%), Manchester United games more often.
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 360 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Leeds United vs Manchester United corners, cards and goal times
Premier League
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Premier League average
Leeds United
Manchester United
4.1
Corners won · league 5.0
6.3
6.4
Corners conceded · league 5.0
4.1
1.6
Cards · league 2.0
1.6
2.3
Opponents' cards · league 2.0
2.1
36%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
42%
29%
Goals after 75' · league 25%
26%
10%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
23%
40%
Conceded after 75' · league 25%
38%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Manchester UnitedLeeds UnitedBoth Teams to Score
Manchester UnitedLeeds UnitedOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Manchester UnitedLeeds UnitedOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Manchester UnitedLeeds UnitedFirst Half Result
Manchester UnitedLeeds UnitedCorrect Score
Manchester UnitedLeeds United