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Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg

Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)

Wasteful

Orenburg are scoring fewer goals than their chances (xG) usually bring

−4goals fewer than their chances (xG) in their last 10

77% of teams scoring this many fewer goals than their chances scored more in their next 10 games.

Bookmakers: Orenburg 35% to winRodina Moskva 37%

Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg score prediction

Premier League

The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.

Evenly matched in front of goal

2.7 goals in total, a little over the Premier League average of 2.5.

goals expected

Rodina Moskva1.3

Orenburg1.3

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.

Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.

How we measure →

Get our AI football prediction and stats for Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.

Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rodina Moskva to win

Our model 39%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,040 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.4% of the time (bookmakers said 43.8%).

Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.

Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market

Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.

Premier League - Russia

Rodina Moskva–

Orenburg–

Winner

12 72%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Premier League - Russia

Rodina Moskva–

Orenburg–

Winner

12 72%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

138%

X28%

234%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%	64%	36%	86%	14%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	29%	71%	63%	37%	85%	15%	95%	5%
	33%	67%	67%	33%	87%	13%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	29%	71%	63%	37%
	33%	67%	67%	33%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	85%	15%	95%	5%
	87%	13%	96%	4%

1st Half

132%

X45%

223%

1st Score

152%

X8%

239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

19%

2-2

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.9%

1-0

9.8%

0-1

9.1%

2-1

8.4%

0-0

8.3%

1-2

7.7%

2-0

6.5%

0-2

5.3%

2-2

5.3%

3-1

3.6%

3-0

3.3%

1-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg: the stats that stand out

Premier League

Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.

How to read it

the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%

Rodina Moskva: leaky · Orenburg: shot-shy and slow starters

Leaky

0/9

Rodina Moskva kept no clean sheet in their last 9 (league 26%).

Shot-shy

5/10

Orenburg failed to score in 5 of their last 10 (league 26%).

Slow starters

3/10

Orenburg scored first in only 3 of their last 10 (league 46%).

Calculated by MyGameOdds

How it works

We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.

How we measure →

Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg: attack vs defence

Premier League

How to read it

other Premier League teamsleague averagelast 10 games

↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)

More chances created (xG a game) →

Rodina Moskva: weak attack, weak defence (0.95 xG, 2.18 xGA a game)
Orenburg: weak attack, good defence (1.22 xG, 1.37 xGA)

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.

How we measure →

Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg form and luck check

Premier League

Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.

How to read it

what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premier League games

Both results in line with their chances

Rodina MoskvaBookmakers: 37% to win today. · 9 of 10 gamesClinical · +3 goals
+0.4
OrenburgBookmakers: 35% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals
−2.1

Last 5 matches

Orenburg

11th in table

Rodina Moskva

15th in table

Last 5 Matches

Strength rank: Rodina Moskva 16th of 16 · Orenburg 12th of 16

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.

We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.

Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.

Strength rank: we rank this season's 16 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.

How we measure →

Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg: Over 2.5 & BTTS?

Premier League

How to read it

a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Premier League gamesBTTS = both teams scored

Rodina Moskva games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Premier League average (48%), Orenburg games less often.

Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%

Rodina Moskva7 of 9

Orenburg4 of 10

BTTSleague 55%

Rodina Moskva6 of 9

Orenburg5 of 10

Calculated by MyGameOdds

How it works

For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 224 games played here in the last 12 months.

How we measure →

Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg corners, cards and goal times

Premier League

How to read it

league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameRodina Moskva: last 9 with these statsPro · free for now

Orenburg score late

Rodina Moskva

Orenburg

3.8

Corners won · league 4.6

3.0

6.8

Corners conceded · league 4.6

5.1

2.3

Cards · league 2.3

3.7

1.8

Opponents' cards · league 2.3

2.2

40%

Goals before half-time · league 45%

14%

20%

Goals after 75' · league 23%

43%

23%

Conceded before half-time · league 45%

23%

32%

Conceded after 75' · league 23%

31%

Calculated by MyGameOdds

How it works

We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.

How we measure →

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Orenburg

1/5

Rodina Moskva

4/5

Both Teams to Score

Orenburg

3/5

Rodina Moskva

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Orenburg

3/5

Rodina Moskva

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Orenburg

4/5

Rodina Moskva

4/5

First Half Result

Orenburg

3/5

Rodina Moskva

3/5

Correct Score

Orenburg

1/5

Rodina Moskva

1/5

correct predictionwrong prediction