Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Super Lig - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)
More goals than usual expected in Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe score prediction
Super Lig
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.1 goals expected
3.1 goals in total: more goals than a typical Super Lig game (average 2.8).
goals expected
Rizespor1.3
Fenerbahçe1.9How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Super Lig
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe to win
Our track record
In 1,738 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 6,318 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 5,011 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,819 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe ahead at half-time
Our track record
In 6,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Rizespor 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,545 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.1% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
Our track record
In 959 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.7% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Rizespor–
Fenerbahçe–Winner
2 56%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
0-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Rizespor–Fenerbahçe–Winner
2 56%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
0-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 45% | 55% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 57% | 75% | 25% |
| 18% | 82% | 47% | 53% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
| 73% | 27% | 89% | 11% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
32%
X-2
16%
X-X
15%
1-1
14%
X-1
8%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
0-1
10.9%
1-1
10.5%
1-2
10.1%
0-2
9.3%
0-0
6.5%
0-3
6.1%
2-1
5.7%
1-0
5.5%
1-3
5.4%
2-2
5.1%
2-3
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe: the stats that stand out
Super Lig
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Fenerbahçe: hard to break
2/10
Hard to breakFenerbahçe conceded first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 46%).
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Super Lig
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 in the Super LigBTTS = both teams scoredFenerbahçe games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Super Lig average (55%), Rizespor games less often.
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 290 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe form and luck check
Super Lig
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringnormal range (±4 points)outside the normal range← fewer points · more points →Both results in line with their chances
RizesporWastefulRizespor's points match their chances, but they scored 3 goals fewer than their chances (xG) usually bring. 77% of teams scoring this many fewer goals than their chances scored more in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: 20% to win today.
FenerbahçeFenerbahçe: results in line with their chances.
Bookmakers: 56% to win today.
Last 5 matches
FenerbahçeRizesporStrength rank: Rizespor 8th of 18 · Fenerbahçe 2nd of 18
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe corners, cards and goal times
Super Lig
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Super Lig average
Rizespor
Fenerbahçe
5.1
Corners won · league 4.7
6.3
4.5
Corners conceded · league 4.7
3.8
1.8
Cards · league 2.3
2.5
1.7
Opponents' cards · league 2.3
2.5
50%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
52%
25%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
12%
38%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
54%
38%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
23%
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
FenerbahçeRizesporBoth Teams to Score
FenerbahçeRizesporOver/Under 2.5 Goals
FenerbahçeRizesporOver/Under 3.5 Goals
FenerbahçeRizesporFirst Half Result
FenerbahçeRizesporCorrect Score
FenerbahçeRizespor