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Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory 2-2 Score & Prediction Review
A-League Men - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)
Adelaide United drew despite more chances
Adelaide United2–2
Melbourne VictoryOn these chances Adelaide United would usually take 2.2 points and Melbourne Victory 0.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Melbourne Victory.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory stats: how the match was played
A-League Men
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Adelaide United had more than twice the shots on target
Adelaide United
Melbourne Victory
8
Shots on target
2
2
Big chances
1
8
Corners
2
3
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
1
59%
Possession
41%
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · A-League Men
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Adelaide United to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Melbourne Victory to win.
Our track record
In 1,086 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,134 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,439 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 1,978 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.5% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Adelaide United 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,830 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
Melbourne Victory 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Melbourne Victory 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 673 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Adelaide United2
Melbourne Victory2Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
Adelaide United2Melbourne Victory2Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 18% | 82% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 52% | 48% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24% | 76% | 55% | 46% |
| 28% | 72% | 59% | 41% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
2-2
21%
X-1
13%
X-X
13%
X-2
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.7%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
7.2%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
5.7%
0-2
4.8%
3-1
4.7%
0-0
4.7%
1-3
4.0%
3-2
3.6%
3-0
3.2%
2-3
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory — Recent Form
Melbourne Victory have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 4 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. Adelaide United have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 3 matches and currently sit 12th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedBoth Teams to Score
Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedFirst Half Result
Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedCorrect Score
Melbourne VictoryAdelaide United