Home
Leagues
A-League Men
Auckland vs Melbourne City

Auckland vs Melbourne City 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

A-League Men - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Fair result

Auckland

3–1

Melbourne City

1.1Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Auckland would usually take 1.1 points and Melbourne City 1.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Auckland.

Auckland +1.9 pts vs chancesMelbourne City −1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Auckland vs Melbourne City stats: how the match was played

A-League Men

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Auckland

Melbourne City

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

42%

Possession

58%

The match between Auckland and Melbourne City ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Auckland win with 38% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Western Sydney Wanderers – Auckland prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Auckland vs Melbourne City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · A-League Men

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Auckland to win

Correct

Our model 38%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 2,094 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,449 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 72%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 4,548 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 40%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,645 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Auckland Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Auckland 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,449 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Melbourne City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Melbourne City 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Auckland vs Melbourne City 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Auckland vs Melbourne City. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

A-League Men - Australia

Auckland3

Melbourne City1

Winner

12 75%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

· FT

A-League Men - Australia

Auckland3

Melbourne City1

Winner

12 75%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

138%

X25%

237%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	25%	75%	49%	51%	62%	38%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	25%	75%	49%	51%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	62%	38%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	30%	70%	63%	37%	85%	15%	95%	5%
	30%	70%	63%	37%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	30%	70%	63%	37%
	30%	70%	63%	37%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	85%	15%	95%	5%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

127%

X40%

233%

1st Score

141%

X7%

252%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

26%

1-1

19%

X-X

14%

X-2

14%

X-1

12%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.5%

1-0

9.5%

0-1

8.7%

2-1

8.5%

1-2

8.2%

0-0

7.0%

2-0

6.1%

0-2

5.9%

2-2

5.3%

3-1

3.7%

1-3

3.6%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Auckland vs Melbourne City — Recent Form

Auckland have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 1 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Melbourne City have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 1 matches and currently sit 12th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Auckland

Melbourne City

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Melbourne City

1/1

Auckland

1/1

Both Teams to Score

Melbourne City

1/1

Auckland

1/1

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Melbourne City

1/1

Auckland

1/1

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Melbourne City

0/1

Auckland

0/1

First Half Result

Melbourne City

1/1

Auckland

1/1

Correct Score

Melbourne City

0/1

Auckland

0/1

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Western Sydney Wanderers – Auckland prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).