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Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Score & Prediction Review
Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)
Schalke 040–1
FSV Mainz 05On these chances Schalke 04 would usually take 1.0 points and FSV Mainz 05 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: FSV Mainz 05.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 stats: how the match was played
Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
FSV Mainz 05 had more than twice the shots on target
Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05
3
Shots on target
6
1
Big chances
4
4
Corners
1
0
Yellow cards
2
46%
Possession
54%
Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,478 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 5,688 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,950 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 2,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Schalke 04 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,672 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,008 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.2% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Schalke 040
FSV Mainz 051Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Schalke 040FSV Mainz 051Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 42% | 58% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36% | 64% | 67% | 33% |
| 23% | 77% | 52% | 48% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 75% | 25% | 89% | 11% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
29%
1-1
20%
X-X
14%
X-2
13%
X-1
9%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.4%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
6.6%
1-0
6.3%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
5.7%
1-3
5.0%
0-3
4.9%
2-0
4.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Schalke 04 have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table.
Last 5 matches
FSV Mainz 05Schalke 04Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05Both Teams to Score
Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05First Half Result
Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05Correct Score
Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05