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Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)
Hamburger SV won with fewer chances than VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV1–0
VfB StuttgartOn these chances Hamburger SV would usually take 0.9 points and VfB Stuttgart 1.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: VfB Stuttgart.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart stats: how the match was played
Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
VfB Stuttgart had clearly more shots on target
Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart
3
Shots on target
5
4
Big chances
5
5
Corners
9
3
Yellow cards
0
33%
Possession
67%
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
VfB Stuttgart to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,477 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 2,450 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,156 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 936 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).
Our model’s pick
VfB Stuttgart ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Hamburger SV 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Our model’s pick
VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,013 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Hamburger SV1
VfB Stuttgart0Winner
X2 70%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 67%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 55%
Hamburger SV1VfB Stuttgart0Winner
X2 70%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 67%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 55%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 15% | 85% | 33% | 67% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 45% | 55% | 71% | 29% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34% | 66% | 62% | 38% |
| 20% | 80% | 45% | 55% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 17% | 94% | 6% |
| 70% | 30% | 86% | 14% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
36%
X-2
17%
1-1
13%
X-X
11%
X-1
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
8.7%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
6.8%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
5.7%
1-0
4.9%
0-3
4.3%
2-3
4.2%
2-0
3.7%
3-1
3.5%
0-0
3.3%
3-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — Recent Form
Hamburger SV have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. VfB Stuttgart have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Hamburger SVVfB StuttgartOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Hamburger SVVfB StuttgartBoth Teams to Score
Hamburger SVVfB StuttgartOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Hamburger SVVfB StuttgartOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Hamburger SVVfB StuttgartFirst Half Result
Hamburger SVVfB StuttgartCorrect Score
Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart