Fast starters
9/10Ajax scored first in 9 of their last 10 (league 48%).
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Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Fast starters
Ajax scored first in 9 of their last 10 (league 48%).
9/10Scored first · Ajax
Bookmakers: Ajax 55% to winAZ 23%
Ajax vs AZ score prediction
Eredivisie
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.2 goals in total, a little under the Eredivisie average of 3.3.
goals expected
Ajax1.8
AZ1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Ajax vs AZ: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Ajax vs AZ — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eredivisie
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ajax to win
Our model 55%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 2,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.2%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 63%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 1,162 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 57%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 947 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ajax ahead at half-time
Our model 47%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 4,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Ajax Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ajax 2+ goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,466 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
AZ Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
AZ 0–1 goals
Our model 68%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 3,288 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Ajax vs AZ — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Ajax vs AZ. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Ajax–
AZ–Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
Ajax–AZ–Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
Full Time
155%
X21%
224%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 16% | 84% | 35% | 65% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 47% | 53% | 72% | 28% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 42% | 58% |
| 38% | 62% | 67% | 33% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 32% | 85% | 15% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
147%
X32%
221%
1st Score
164%
X4%
233%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
38%
X-1
16%
2-2
13%
X-X
10%
X-2
7%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
2-1
9.8%
1-1
8.9%
1-0
7.7%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
6.5%
2-2
6.2%
1-2
6.1%
3-0
5.0%
0-1
4.6%
3-2
4.3%
0-0
3.7%
0-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Ajax vs AZ: the stats that stand out
Eredivisie
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Ajax: fast starters, always on the scoresheet and banker as favourites
9/10Always on the scoresheet
0/10Ajax scored in all of their last 10 (league 19% fail to score).
Banker as favourites
6/9Ajax won 6 of 9 as favourites (league 51%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Ajax vs AZ: attack vs defence
Eredivisie
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Eredivisie teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Ajax: good attack, good defence (2.36 xG, 1.16 xGA a game)
- AZ: good attack, good defence (1.97 xG, 1.02 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Ajax vs AZ form and luck check
Eredivisie
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Eredivisie gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- AjaxBookmakers: 55% to win today.−2.1
- AZBookmakers: 23% to win today.−1.3
Last 5 matches
AjaxW
W
D
D
W
AZL
D
L
W
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Ajax 3rd of 18 · AZ 5th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Ajax vs AZ: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Eredivisie
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Eredivisie gamesBTTS = both teams scoredAZ games go over 2.5 goals less often than the Eredivisie average (63%), Ajax games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 63%
Ajax8 of 10
AZ4 of 10
BTTSleague 66%
Ajax8 of 10
AZ5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 309 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Ajax vs AZ corners, cards and goal times
Eredivisie
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.3
- Cards: league 1.6
- Goals before half-time: league 44%
- Goals after 75': league 23%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
AZ2/5
Ajax3/5
Both Teams to Score
AZ2/5
Ajax5/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
AZ1/5
Ajax4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
AZ4/5
Ajax2/5
First Half Result
AZ4/5
Ajax3/5
Correct Score
AZ1/5
Ajax1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction