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Excelsior vs FC Groningen 1-5 Score & Prediction Review
Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Excelsior1–5
FC GroningenOn these chances Excelsior would usually take 1.0 points and FC Groningen 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Groningen.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Excelsior vs FC Groningen stats: how the match was played
Eredivisie
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
FC Groningen had more than twice the shots on target
Excelsior
FC Groningen
2
Shots on target
9
1
Big chances
5
3
Corners
6
0
Yellow cards
2
48%
Possession
52%
Excelsior vs FC Groningen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eredivisie
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Excelsior to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: FC Groningen to win.
Our track record
In 1,070 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,490 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,120 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,414 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 2,011 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Excelsior 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
FC Groningen 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,595 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Excelsior vs FC Groningen 1-5 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Excelsior vs FC Groningen. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Excelsior1
FC Groningen5Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Excelsior1FC Groningen5Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 18% | 82% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24% | 76% | 55% | 45% |
| 28% | 72% | 59% | 41% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
28%
2-2
17%
X-1
14%
X-X
14%
X-2
10%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.1%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.2%
2-2
6.7%
0-1
6.5%
2-0
5.8%
0-2
4.8%
3-1
4.8%
0-0
4.6%
1-3
3.9%
3-2
3.4%
3-0
3.3%
2-3
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Excelsior vs FC Groningen — Recent Form
FC Groningen have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Excelsior have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table.
Last 5 matches
FC GroningenExcelsiorOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
ExcelsiorFC GroningenBoth Teams to Score
ExcelsiorFC GroningenOver/Under 2.5 Goals
ExcelsiorFC GroningenOver/Under 3.5 Goals
ExcelsiorFC GroningenFirst Half Result
ExcelsiorFC GroningenCorrect Score
ExcelsiorFC Groningen