Always chasing
7/10Avispa Fukuoka conceded first in 7 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
J-League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)
Unlucky
Avispa Fukuoka are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−7points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games. Machida Zelvia are the other way round, ahead of their chances: about +5 points.
Bookmakers: Avispa Fukuoka 20% to winMachida Zelvia 52%
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka score prediction
J-League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Machida Zelvia expected to create clearly more
2.4 goals in total: fewer goals than usual (the J-League average is 2.8).
goals expected
Machida Zelvia1.5Avispa Fukuoka0.9Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · J-League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Machida Zelvia to win
Our model 49%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 3,475 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 51%Bookmakers 48%
Our track record
In 3,123 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 5,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 75%Bookmakers 77%
Our track record
In 4,547 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 47%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 4,218 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.7% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Machida Zelvia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Machida Zelvia 0–1 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 3,452 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Avispa Fukuoka Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Avispa Fukuoka 0–1 goals
Our model 75%Bookmakers 77%
Our track record
In 3,345 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Machida Zelvia–
Avispa Fukuoka–Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 65%
Machida Zelvia–Avispa Fukuoka–Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 65%
Full Time
149%
X26%
225%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 28% | 72% | 52% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 65% | 35% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 55% | 45% |
| 40% | 60% | 75% | 25% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
132%
X47%
221%
1st Score
155%
X8%
238%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
27%
X-1
19%
X-X
17%
2-2
13%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.3%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.7%
0-1
7.8%
0-0
7.6%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
4.8%
3-0
4.7%
3-1
4.6%
0-2
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka: the stats that stand out
J-League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Avispa Fukuoka: always chasing and leaky · Machida Zelvia: always on the scoresheet
7/10Always on the scoresheet
1/10Machida Zelvia failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 27%).
Leaky
1/10Avispa Fukuoka kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 27%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka: attack vs defence
J-League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other J-League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Machida Zelvia: good attack, good defence (1.40 xG, 1.29 xGA a game)
- Avispa Fukuoka: weak attack, good defence (1.32 xG, 1.31 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka form and luck check
J-League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 J-League gamesMachida Zelvia riding their luck, Avispa Fukuoka unlucky
- Machida ZelviaBookmakers: 52% to win today.Clinical · +8 goals+4.5
- Avispa FukuokaBookmakers: 20% to win today.−6.8
Last 5 matches
Machida ZelviaW
L
D
W
W
Avispa FukuokaW
L
L
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Machida Zelvia 4th of 20 · Avispa Fukuoka 11th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
J-League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 J-League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Machida Zelvia games more often than the J-League average (54%), in Avispa Fukuoka games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 51%
Machida Zelvia6 of 10
Avispa Fukuoka5 of 10
BTTSleague 54%
Machida Zelvia7 of 10
Avispa Fukuoka5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 140 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka corners, cards and goal times
J-League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameAvispa Fukuoka score early
Machida Zelvia
Avispa Fukuoka
4.7
Corners won · league 4.6
4.5
4.1
Corners conceded · league 4.6
3.3
0.9
Cards · league 1.4
2.2
1.4
Opponents' cards · league 1.4
1.3
36%
Goals before half-time · league 40%
55%
32%
Goals after 75' · league 26%
27%
36%
Conceded before half-time · league 40%
29%
9%
Conceded after 75' · league 26%
29%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Avispa Fukuoka1/5
Machida Zelvia3/5
Both Teams to Score
Avispa Fukuoka5/5
Machida Zelvia4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Avispa Fukuoka3/5
Machida Zelvia2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Avispa Fukuoka4/5
Machida Zelvia3/5
First Half Result
Avispa Fukuoka3/5
Machida Zelvia2/5
Correct Score
Avispa Fukuoka1/5
Machida Zelvia1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction