Always chasing
9/10Ceuta conceded first in 9 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Cádiz vs Ceuta Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
La Liga 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Unlucky
Ceuta are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−8points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games. Cádiz are also behind their chances: about −6 points.
Bookmakers: Ceuta 26% to winCádiz 47%
Cádiz vs Ceuta score prediction
La Liga 2
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.6 goals in total, a little under the La Liga 2 average of 2.7.
goals expected
Cádiz1.5Ceuta1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Cádiz vs Ceuta: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Cádiz vs Ceuta — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga 2
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cádiz to win
Our model 48%Bookmakers 47%
Our track record
In 3,517 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 51%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 6,524 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 2,862 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 74%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 4,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 46%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 4,294 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Cádiz Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cádiz 0–1 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Ceuta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ceuta 0–1 goals
Our model 74%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 3,396 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Cádiz vs Ceuta — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Cádiz vs Ceuta. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Cádiz–
Ceuta–Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Cádiz–Ceuta–Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Full Time
148%
X26%
225%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 52% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 64% | 36% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 55% | 45% |
| 40% | 60% | 74% | 26% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
135%
X45%
219%
1st Score
159%
X8%
232%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
28%
X-1
18%
X-X
17%
2-2
12%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.0%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.7%
0-0
8.2%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
5.2%
3-1
4.7%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
3.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Cádiz vs Ceuta: the stats that stand out
La Liga 2
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Ceuta: always chasing and leaky · Cádiz: shot-shy
9/10Leaky
0/10Ceuta kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 26%).
Shot-shy
4/10Cádiz failed to score in 4 of their last 10 (league 26%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Cádiz vs Ceuta: attack vs defence
La Liga 2
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other La Liga 2 teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Cádiz: weak attack, good defence (1.27 xG, 1.21 xGA a game)
- Ceuta: good attack, weak defence (1.44 xG, 1.45 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Cádiz vs Ceuta form and luck check
La Liga 2
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 La Liga 2 gamesBoth sides are getting less than their chances usually bring
- CádizBookmakers: 47% to win today.−6.1
- CeutaBookmakers: 26% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−8.0
Last 5 matches
CeutaL
L
D
W
D
CádizL
L
W
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Cádiz 21st of 22 · Ceuta 22nd of 22
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 22 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Cádiz vs Ceuta: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
La Liga 2
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 La Liga 2 gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Ceuta games more often than the La Liga 2 average (55%), in Cádiz games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 51%
Cádiz4 of 10
Ceuta6 of 10
BTTSleague 55%
Cádiz5 of 10
Ceuta7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 475 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Cádiz vs Ceuta corners, cards and goal times
La Liga 2
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameCeuta score late
Cádiz
Ceuta
4.7
Corners won · league 4.8
6.0
4.6
Corners conceded · league 4.8
2.7
2.9
Cards · league 2.7
2.6
2.2
Opponents' cards · league 2.7
3.1
27%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
22%
18%
Goals after 75' · league 25%
56%
54%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
36%
8%
Conceded after 75' · league 25%
27%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Cádiz3/5
Ceuta1/5
Both Teams to Score
Cádiz3/5
Ceuta3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Cádiz2/5
Ceuta3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Cádiz4/5
Ceuta4/5
First Half Result
Cádiz2/5
Ceuta4/5
Correct Score
Cádiz0/5
Ceuta1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction