Flop as favourites
1/6Athletic Club won only 1 of 6 as favourites (league 56%).
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Unlucky
Athletic Club are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−8points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games. Rayo Vallecano are the other way round, ahead of their chances: about +4 points.
Bookmakers: Athletic Club 38% to winRayo Vallecano 35%
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club score prediction
La Liga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.6 goals in total, a little under the La Liga average of 2.8.
goals expected
Rayo Vallecano1.4Athletic Club1.2Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Rayo Vallecano to win
Our model 37%Bookmakers 35%
Our track record
In 1,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 54%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 6,314 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 2,766 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 73%Bookmakers 71%
Our track record
In 4,427 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.7%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 44%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 6,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Rayo Vallecano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Rayo Vallecano 0–1 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 3,372 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.1% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Athletic Club Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Athletic Club 0–1 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 2,605 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Rayo Vallecano–
Athletic Club–Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Rayo Vallecano–Athletic Club–Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
137%
X27%
236%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 71% | 63% | 37% |
| 30% | 70% | 65% | 35% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
130%
X44%
227%
1st Score
147%
X8%
245%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
2-2
17%
X-X
16%
X-1
14%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.9%
0-1
9.3%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
0-0
7.7%
2-0
5.9%
0-2
5.8%
2-2
5.5%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
3.3%
3-0
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club: the stats that stand out
La Liga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Athletic Club: flop as favourites and slow starters · Rayo Vallecano: always on the scoresheet
1/6Always on the scoresheet
0/10Rayo Vallecano scored in all of their last 10 (league 25% fail to score).
Slow starters
2/10Athletic Club scored first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club: attack vs defence
La Liga
How to read it
other La Liga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Rayo Vallecano: weak attack, weak defence (1.36 xG, 1.79 xGA a game)
- Athletic Club: good attack, good defence (1.51 xG, 1.04 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club form and luck check
La Liga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 La Liga gamesRayo Vallecano riding their luck, Athletic Club unlucky
- Rayo VallecanoBookmakers: 35% to win today.Clinical · +3 goals+4.1
- Athletic ClubBookmakers: 38% to win today.Wasteful · −5 goals−8.2
Last 5 matches
Athletic ClubD
D
W
W
L
Rayo VallecanoD
W
L
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Rayo Vallecano 11th of 20 · Athletic Club 6th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
La Liga
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 La Liga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Rayo Vallecano games more often than the La Liga average (56%), in Athletic Club games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 52%
Rayo Vallecano6 of 10
Athletic Club3 of 10
BTTSleague 56%
Rayo Vallecano9 of 10
Athletic Club4 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 369 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club corners, cards and goal times
La Liga
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the La Liga average
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
4.4
Corners won · league 4.8
6.5
6.7
Corners conceded · league 4.8
4.4
2.5
Cards · league 2.3
1.7
1.9
Opponents' cards · league 2.3
1.6
50%
Goals before half-time · league 43%
30%
6%
Goals after 75' · league 26%
30%
56%
Conceded before half-time · league 43%
36%
22%
Conceded after 75' · league 26%
21%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Rayo Vallecano4/5
Athletic Club2/5
Both Teams to Score
Rayo Vallecano3/5
Athletic Club1/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rayo Vallecano3/5
Athletic Club4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Rayo Vallecano2/5
Athletic Club5/5
First Half Result
Rayo Vallecano3/5
Athletic Club4/5
Correct Score
Rayo Vallecano1/5
Athletic Club1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction