Always chasing
7/8Rodez conceded first in 7 of 8 recent matches with goal times (league 45%).
Rodez vs Montpellier Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Ligue 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Unlucky
Rodez are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−5points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 8 with xG
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Rodez 34% to winMontpellier 40%
Rodez vs Montpellier score prediction
Ligue 2
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.7 goals in total, a little over the Ligue 2 average of 2.6.
goals expected
Rodez1.3
Montpellier1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Rodez vs Montpellier: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Rodez vs Montpellier — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Ligue 2
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Rodez to win
Our model 38%Bookmakers 34%
Our track record
In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 56%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 57%
Our track record
In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 72%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 43%Bookmakers 40%
Our track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Rodez Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Rodez 0–1 goals
Our model 62%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Montpellier Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Montpellier 0–1 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Rodez vs Montpellier — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Rodez vs Montpellier. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Rodez–
Montpellier–Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Rodez–Montpellier–Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Full Time
138%
X27%
236%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 49% | 51% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 62% | 38% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 71% | 62% | 38% |
| 30% | 70% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
134%
X43%
223%
1st Score
153%
X7%
239%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
X-X
18%
2-2
18%
X-1
14%
X-2
11%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.5%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
8.4%
1-2
8.4%
0-0
7.2%
2-0
6.0%
0-2
5.8%
2-2
5.6%
3-1
3.6%
1-3
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Rodez vs Montpellier: the stats that stand out
Ligue 2
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Rodez: always chasing · Montpellier: brick wall and always on the scoresheet
7/8Brick wall
5/10Montpellier kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 29%).
Always on the scoresheet
1/10Montpellier failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 29%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Rodez vs Montpellier: attack vs defence
Ligue 2
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Ligue 2 teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Rodez: good attack, weak defence (1.60 xG, 1.41 xGA a game)
- Montpellier: good attack, weak defence (1.37 xG, 1.42 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Rodez vs Montpellier form and luck check
Ligue 2
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Ligue 2 gamesRodez are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- RodezBookmakers: 34% to win today. · 8 of 10 games−4.7
- MontpellierBookmakers: 40% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals+2.5
Last 5 matches
MontpellierW
D
W
L
D
RodezL
L
L
L
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Rodez 10th of 18 · Montpellier 4th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Rodez vs Montpellier: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Ligue 2
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Ligue 2 gamesBTTS = both teams scoredMontpellier games go over 2.5 goals less often than the Ligue 2 average (48%), Rodez games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
Rodez6 of 10
Montpellier2 of 10
BTTSleague 54%
Rodez6 of 10
Montpellier5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 300 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Rodez vs Montpellier corners, cards and goal times
Ligue 2
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameRodez: last 8 with these statsGoal times close to the Ligue 2 average
Rodez
Montpellier
6.6
Corners won · league 4.6
5.9
4.1
Corners conceded · league 4.6
3.7
1.5
Cards · league 2.1
2.3
1.8
Opponents' cards · league 2.1
2.5
36%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
40%
29%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
30%
61%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
63%
0%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
13%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Montpellier3/5
Rodez2/5
Both Teams to Score
Montpellier2/5
Rodez2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Montpellier3/5
Rodez3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Montpellier4/5
Rodez2/5
First Half Result
Montpellier5/5
Rodez1/5
Correct Score
Montpellier1/5
Rodez0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction