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MTK vs Vasas

MTK vs Vasas 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

NB I. - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Fair result

MTK

1–0

Vasas

1.2Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances MTK would usually take 1.2 points and Vasas 1.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: MTK.

MTK +1.8 pts vs chancesVasas −1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

MTK vs Vasas stats: how the match was played

NB I.

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

MTK

Vasas

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

39%

Possession

61%

The match between MTK and Vasas ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a MTK win with 38% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vasas – Paksi SE prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

MTK vs Vasas — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · NB I.

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

MTK to win

Correct

Our model 38%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 2,100 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,460 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,088 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,382 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 43%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 6,656 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

MTK Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

MTK 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: MTK 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.

Vasas Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vasas 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

MTK vs Vasas 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for MTK vs Vasas. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

NB I. - Hungary

MTK1

Vasas0

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

· FT

NB I. - Hungary

MTK1

Vasas0

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

Full Time

138%

X24%

238%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	61%	51%	49%	76%	24%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	61%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	51%	49%	76%	24%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	56%	44%	80%	20%	93%	7%
	27%	73%	56%	44%	80%	20%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	56%	44%
	27%	73%	56%	44%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	80%	20%	93%	7%
	80%	20%	92%	8%

1st Half

129%

X43%

228%

1st Score

152%

X5%

243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

2-2

21%

X-1

14%

X-X

14%

X-2

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.3%

1-2

8.3%

2-1

8.3%

1-0

7.0%

2-2

6.6%

0-1

6.4%

2-0

5.3%

0-0

5.0%

0-2

4.9%

3-1

4.6%

1-3

4.5%

3-2

3.7%

2-3

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

MTK vs Vasas — Recent Form

Vasas have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. MTK have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Vasas

MTK

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

MTK

3/5

Vasas

3/5

Both Teams to Score

MTK

3/5

Vasas

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

MTK

4/5

Vasas

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

MTK

4/5

Vasas

2/5

First Half Result

MTK

2/5

Vasas

2/5

Correct Score

MTK

0/5

Vasas

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vasas – Paksi SE prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).