Leaky
0/10Manchester United kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 26%).
- Home
- Liverpool vs Manchester United
Liverpool vs Manchester United Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Unlucky
Manchester United are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−9points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Manchester United 22% to winLiverpool 56%
Liverpool vs Manchester United score prediction
Premier League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.1 goals expected
3.1 goals in total: more goals than a typical Premier League game (average 2.8).
goals expected
Liverpool1.7Manchester United1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Liverpool vs Manchester United: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Liverpool vs Manchester United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Liverpool to win
Our model 44%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 3,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 57%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 5,749 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.9%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 64%
Our track record
In 5,135 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 68%Bookmakers 57%
Our track record
In 4,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.6%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Liverpool ahead at half-time
Our model 38%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 1,941 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 41.0% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Liverpool Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Liverpool 0–1 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 38%
Our track record
In 1,038 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.8% than to our 55–60%.
Manchester United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Manchester United 0–1 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,322 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.7% of the time (bookmakers said 67.5%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Liverpool vs Manchester United — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Liverpool vs Manchester United. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Liverpool–
Manchester United–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Liverpool–Manchester United–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Full Time
144%
X25%
231%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 45% | 55% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 58% | 42% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24% | 76% | 55% | 45% |
| 34% | 66% | 66% | 34% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
138%
X37%
225%
1st Score
152%
X6%
242%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
2-2
17%
X-1
14%
X-X
13%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.3%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.5%
0-1
7.4%
2-0
6.8%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
3-1
4.7%
0-2
4.3%
3-0
3.8%
3-2
3.1%
1-3
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Liverpool vs Manchester United: the stats that stand out
Premier League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Manchester United: leaky, flop as favourites and always chasing
0/10Flop as favourites
1/7Manchester United won only 1 of 7 as favourites (league 48%).
Always chasing
7/10Manchester United conceded first in 7 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Liverpool vs Manchester United: attack vs defence
Premier League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Premier League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Liverpool: good attack, good defence (1.56 xG, 1.41 xGA a game)
- Manchester United: good attack, weak defence (2.00 xG, 1.52 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Liverpool vs Manchester United form and luck check
Premier League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premier League gamesManchester United are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- LiverpoolBookmakers: 56% to win today.+2.3
- Manchester UnitedBookmakers: 22% to win today.Wasteful · −7 goals−9.0
Last 5 matches
LiverpoolW
L
W
W
L
Manchester UnitedD
L
L
D
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Liverpool 4th of 20 · Manchester United 5th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Liverpool vs Manchester United: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premier League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premier League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Liverpool games less often than the Premier League average (56%), in Manchester United games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 52%
Liverpool5 of 10
Manchester United4 of 10
BTTSleague 56%
Liverpool4 of 10
Manchester United6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 370 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Liverpool vs Manchester United corners, cards and goal times
Premier League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.9
- Cards: league 2.0
- Goals before half-time: league 43%
- Goals after 75': league 24%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Liverpool5/5
Manchester United1/5
Both Teams to Score
Liverpool2/5
Manchester United3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Liverpool3/5
Manchester United3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Liverpool4/5
Manchester United4/5
First Half Result
Liverpool1/5
Manchester United2/5
Correct Score
Liverpool0/5
Manchester United2/5
correct predictionwrong prediction