Leaky
1/10Rodina Moskva kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 27%).
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Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 13)
Goal-fest alert
More goals than usual expected in Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar
3.0goals expected · Premier League average 2.6
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bookmakers: under 2.5 goals 40%
Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar score prediction
Premier League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.0 goals expected
3.0 goals in total: more goals than a typical Premier League game (average 2.6).
goals expected
Rodina Moskva1.0
Krasnodar2.0Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Krasnodar to win
Our model 62%Bookmakers 57%
Our track record
In 1,062 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.9% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 52%Bookmakers 40%
Our track record
In 3,093 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 50%Bookmakers 40%
Our track record
In 2,839 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 72%Bookmakers 61%
Our track record
In 4,538 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Krasnodar ahead at half-time
Our model 46%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 4,268 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Rodina Moskva Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Rodina Moskva 0–1 goals
Our model 83%Bookmakers 67%
Our track record
In 391 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.1% of the time (bookmakers said 80.3%).
Krasnodar Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Krasnodar 2+ goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 61%
Our track record
In 1,019 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Rodina Moskva–
Krasnodar–Winner
2 62%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
0-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Rodina Moskva–Krasnodar–Winner
2 62%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
0-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Full Time
115%
X23%
262%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 50% | 50% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 62% | 38% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51% | 49% | 83% | 17% |
| 17% | 83% | 45% | 55% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
| 71% | 29% | 88% | 12% |
1st Half
114%
X39%
246%
1st Score
129%
X8%
263%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
38%
X-2
20%
X-X
13%
1-1
8%
X-1
6%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
4%
2-1
1%
Correct Score
0-1
13.3%
0-2
11.3%
1-1
10.3%
1-2
10.0%
0-0
7.8%
0-3
7.2%
1-3
6.0%
1-0
5.3%
2-2
4.0%
2-1
3.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar: the stats that stand out
Premier League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Rodina Moskva: leaky · Krasnodar: always on the scoresheet and hard to break
1/10Always on the scoresheet
1/10Krasnodar failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 27%).
Hard to break
3/10Krasnodar conceded first in only 3 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar: attack vs defence
Premier League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Premier League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Rodina Moskva: weak attack, weak defence (1.08 xG, 2.08 xGA a game)
- Krasnodar: good attack, good defence (1.44 xG, 1.15 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar form and luck check
Premier League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premier League gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Rodina MoskvaBookmakers: 21% to win today.+2.2
- KrasnodarBookmakers: 57% to win today.0.0
Last 5 matches
Rodina MoskvaW
D
L
D
L
KrasnodarD
D
L
D
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Rodina Moskva 16th of 16 · Krasnodar 2nd of 16
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 16 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premier League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premier League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredRodina Moskva games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Premier League average (49%), Krasnodar games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 49%
Rodina Moskva7 of 10
Krasnodar4 of 10
BTTSleague 54%
Rodina Moskva6 of 10
Krasnodar6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 233 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar corners, cards and goal times
Premier League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.6
- Cards: league 2.3
- Goals before half-time: league 45%
- Goals after 75': league 23%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Krasnodar0/5
Rodina Moskva2/5
Both Teams to Score
Krasnodar2/5
Rodina Moskva3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Krasnodar3/5
Rodina Moskva4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Krasnodar3/5
Rodina Moskva4/5
First Half Result
Krasnodar2/5
Rodina Moskva4/5
Correct Score
Krasnodar0/5
Rodina Moskva1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction