Fast starters
8/10Spartak Moskva scored first in 8 of their last 10 (league 46%).
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Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 13)
Goal-fest alert
More goals than usual expected in Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva
2.8goals expected · Premier League average 2.6
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bookmakers: under 2.5 goals 44%
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva score prediction
Premier League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert2.8 goals expected
2.8 goals in total, a little over the Premier League average of 2.6.
goals expected
Lokomotiv Moskva1.3Spartak Moskva1.5Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Spartak Moskva to win
Our model 45%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 3,494 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 53%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 3,093 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 801 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 78%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,633 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 47%Bookmakers 40%
Our track record
In 547 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 34.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.
Lokomotiv Moskva Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lokomotiv Moskva 0–1 goals
Our model 75%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 1,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Spartak Moskva Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Spartak Moskva 0–1 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 366 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Lokomotiv Moskva–
Spartak Moskva–Winner
X2 73%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
0-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Lokomotiv Moskva–Spartak Moskva–Winner
X2 73%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
0-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Full Time
127%
X27%
245%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 68% | 32% | 88% | 12% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 60% | 75% | 25% |
| 28% | 72% | 61% | 39% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
122%
X47%
231%
1st Score
138%
X10%
252%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
25%
X-2
18%
X-X
17%
1-1
15%
X-1
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
0-1
12.6%
1-1
12.4%
0-0
10.2%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
8.8%
0-2
8.2%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
4.7%
2-2
4.2%
1-3
4.2%
0-3
3.8%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva: the stats that stand out
Premier League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Spartak Moskva: fast starters, always on the scoresheet and brick wall
8/10Always on the scoresheet
1/10Spartak Moskva failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 27%).
Brick wall
4/10Spartak Moskva kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 27%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva: attack vs defence
Premier League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Premier League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Lokomotiv Moskva: weak attack, weak defence (1.15 xG, 1.84 xGA a game)
- Spartak Moskva: good attack, good defence (1.72 xG, 1.12 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva form and luck check
Premier League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premier League gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Lokomotiv MoskvaBookmakers: 22% to win today.Clinical · +3 goals+0.9
- Spartak MoskvaBookmakers: 54% to win today.−1.8
Last 5 matches
Spartak MoskvaL
W
D
W
W
Lokomotiv MoskvaL
D
W
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Lokomotiv Moskva 7th of 16 · Spartak Moskva 3rd of 16
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 16 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premier League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premier League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredLokomotiv Moskva games go over 2.5 goals less often than the Premier League average (49%), Spartak Moskva games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 49%
Lokomotiv Moskva4 of 10
Spartak Moskva5 of 10
BTTSleague 54%
Lokomotiv Moskva5 of 10
Spartak Moskva5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 233 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Lokomotiv Moskva vs Spartak Moskva corners, cards and goal times
Premier League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.6
- Cards: league 2.3
- Goals before half-time: league 45%
- Goals after 75': league 23%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Lokomotiv Moskva2/5
Spartak Moskva4/5
Both Teams to Score
Lokomotiv Moskva2/5
Spartak Moskva4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Lokomotiv Moskva3/5
Spartak Moskva3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Lokomotiv Moskva3/5
Spartak Moskva4/5
First Half Result
Lokomotiv Moskva2/5
Spartak Moskva3/5
Correct Score
Lokomotiv Moskva0/5
Spartak Moskva2/5
correct predictionwrong prediction