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Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel

Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)

Smash-and-grab

Fakel won with fewer chances than Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov

1–2

Fakel

1.9Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Krylya Sovetov would usually take 2.0 points and Fakel 0.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Krylya Sovetov.

Krylya Sovetov −2.0 pts vs chancesFakel +2.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Krylya Sovetov had clearly more shots on target

Krylya Sovetov

Fakel

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

64%

Possession

37%

The match between Krylya Sovetov and Fakel ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Krylya Sovetov win at 47% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fakel – Rodina Moskva prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Krylya Sovetov to win

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 3,477 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,301 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 77%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 3,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 43%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Krylya Sovetov Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Krylya Sovetov 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Fakel Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fakel 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 3,353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - Russia

Krylya Sovetov1

Fakel2

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

· FT

Premier League - Russia

Krylya Sovetov1

Fakel2

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

147%

X27%

226%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	30%	70%	56%	44%	67%	33%	88%	12%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	30%	70%	56%	44%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	67%	33%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	59%	41%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	41%	59%	74%	26%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	59%	41%
	41%	59%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

132%

X43%

226%

1st Score

150%

X9%

241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

17%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-2

11%

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

12.7%

1-1

12.3%

2-0

9.1%

0-0

9.0%

2-1

8.9%

0-1

8.2%

1-2

6.4%

2-2

4.6%

3-0

4.4%

0-2

4.3%

3-1

4.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel — Recent Form

Krylya Sovetov have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. Fakel have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Krylya Sovetov

Fakel

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Krylya Sovetov

1/5

Fakel

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Krylya Sovetov

2/5

Fakel

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Krylya Sovetov

2/5

Fakel

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Krylya Sovetov

4/5

Fakel

2/5

First Half Result

Krylya Sovetov

4/5

Fakel

2/5

Correct Score

Krylya Sovetov

1/5

Fakel

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fakel – Rodina Moskva prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).