Leaky
0/10Rodina Moskva kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 27%).
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Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Leaky
Rodina Moskva kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 27%).
0/10Clean sheets · Rodina Moskva
Bookmakers: Rodina Moskva 33% to winOrenburg 40%
Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg score prediction
Premier League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.7 goals in total, a little over the Premier League average of 2.5.
goals expected
Rodina Moskva1.3
Orenburg1.5Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Rodina Moskva to win
Our model 39%Bookmakers 33%
Our track record
In 1,530 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 6,507 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 50%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 2,857 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 71%
Our track record
In 4,594 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 43%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 6,726 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Rodina Moskva Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Rodina Moskva 0–1 goals
Our model 62%Bookmakers 64%
Our track record
In 3,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Orenburg Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Orenburg 0–1 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 59%
Our track record
In 2,697 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Rodina Moskva–
Orenburg–Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Rodina Moskva–Orenburg–Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Full Time
139%
X26%
235%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 50% | 50% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 61% | 39% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28% | 72% | 62% | 38% |
| 31% | 69% | 64% | 36% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
| 86% | 14% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
131%
X43%
226%
1st Score
152%
X7%
241%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
2-2
18%
X-X
16%
X-1
14%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
12.3%
1-0
9.9%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.5%
0-0
7.1%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
5.7%
0-2
5.7%
3-1
3.8%
1-3
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg: the stats that stand out
Premier League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Rodina Moskva: leaky and shot-shy
0/10Shot-shy
4/10Rodina Moskva failed to score in 4 of their last 10 (league 27%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg: attack vs defence
Premier League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Premier League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Rodina Moskva: weak attack, weak defence (0.96 xG, 2.24 xGA a game)
- Orenburg: good attack, good defence (1.40 xG, 1.28 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg form and luck check
Premier League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Premier League gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Rodina MoskvaBookmakers: 33% to win today.+0.3
- OrenburgBookmakers: 40% to win today.−1.1
Last 5 matches
OrenburgW
D
L
D
D
Rodina MoskvaL
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Rodina Moskva 16th of 16 · Orenburg 11th of 16
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 16 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Premier League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Premier League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredRodina Moskva games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Premier League average (48%), Orenburg games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
Rodina Moskva8 of 10
Orenburg4 of 10
BTTSleague 54%
Rodina Moskva6 of 10
Orenburg5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 235 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg corners, cards and goal times
Premier League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Premier League average
Rodina Moskva
Orenburg
3.8
Corners won · league 4.6
3.4
6.8
Corners conceded · league 4.6
5.0
2.3
Cards · league 2.2
3.4
1.7
Opponents' cards · league 2.2
2.2
40%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
27%
20%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
27%
28%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
20%
32%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
30%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Orenburg2/5
Rodina Moskva4/5
Both Teams to Score
Orenburg4/5
Rodina Moskva2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Orenburg2/5
Rodina Moskva2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Orenburg3/5
Rodina Moskva5/5
First Half Result
Orenburg2/5
Rodina Moskva4/5
Correct Score
Orenburg1/5
Rodina Moskva1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction