Hard to break
1/10Fenerbahçe conceded first in only 1 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Super Lig - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Goal-fest alert
More goals than usual expected in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe
3.2goals expected · Super Lig average 2.8
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bookmakers: over 2.5 goals 65%
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe score prediction
Super Lig
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.2 goals expected
3.2 goals in total: more goals than a typical Super Lig game (average 2.8).
goals expected
Galatasaray1.8Fenerbahçe1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Super Lig
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe to win
Our model 39%Bookmakers 33%
Our track record
In 1,526 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 63%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,456 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 65%
Our track record
In 3,085 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 59%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 938 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 36%Bookmakers 37%
Our track record
In 2,004 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Galatasaray Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Galatasaray 0–1 goals
Our model 56%Bookmakers 46%
Our track record
In 1,018 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.
Fenerbahçe Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe 0–1 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Galatasaray–
Fenerbahçe–Winner
12 76%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Galatasaray–Fenerbahçe–Winner
12 76%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Full Time
137%
X24%
239%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 37% | 63% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 49% | 51% | 75% | 25% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27% | 73% | 56% | 44% |
| 26% | 74% | 55% | 45% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
1st Half
132%
X36%
233%
1st Score
150%
X4%
246%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
23%
1-1
22%
X-X
13%
X-1
12%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-2
5%
1-X
4%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
9.9%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
7.0%
0-1
6.7%
1-0
6.3%
0-2
5.1%
2-0
4.9%
1-3
4.5%
0-0
4.3%
3-1
4.2%
2-3
3.6%
3-2
3.6%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe: the stats that stand out
Super Lig
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Fenerbahçe: hard to break, brick wall and always on the scoresheet
1/10Brick wall
6/10Fenerbahçe kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 28%).
Always on the scoresheet
1/10Fenerbahçe failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 28%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe: attack vs defence
Super Lig
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Super Lig teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Galatasaray: good attack, good defence (2.44 xG, 1.12 xGA a game)
- Fenerbahçe: good attack, good defence (2.18 xG, 1.22 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe form and luck check
Super Lig
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Super Lig gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- GalatasarayBookmakers: 43% to win today.Wasteful · −6 goals−0.7
- FenerbahçeBookmakers: 33% to win today.Clinical · +4 goals−1.9
Last 5 matches
GalatasarayW
W
L
W
W
FenerbahçeW
W
W
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Galatasaray 2nd of 18 · Fenerbahçe 1st of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Super Lig
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Super Lig gamesBTTS = both teams scoredGalatasaray and Fenerbahçe games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Super Lig average (56%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 56%
Galatasaray7 of 10
Fenerbahçe8 of 10
BTTSleague 52%
Galatasaray5 of 10
Fenerbahçe4 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 297 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe corners, cards and goal times
Super Lig
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGalatasaray score late
Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
7.3
Corners won · league 4.7
5.8
2.8
Corners conceded · league 4.7
3.5
2.0
Cards · league 2.2
1.8
1.9
Opponents' cards · league 2.2
1.8
29%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
50%
38%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
21%
43%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
56%
14%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
22%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Galatasaray5/5
Fenerbahçe3/5
Both Teams to Score
Galatasaray2/5
Fenerbahçe4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Galatasaray4/5
Fenerbahçe3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Galatasaray2/5
Fenerbahçe4/5
First Half Result
Galatasaray2/5
Fenerbahçe3/5
Correct Score
Galatasaray1/5
Fenerbahçe0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction