Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor 4-1 Score & Prediction Review
Super Lig - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Kasımpaşa4–1
SamsunsporOn these chances Kasımpaşa would usually take 2.1 points and Samsunspor 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Kasımpaşa.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor stats: how the match was played
Super Lig
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Kasımpaşa had more than twice the shots on target
Kasımpaşa
Samsunspor
9
Shots on target
4
4
Big chances
2
8
Corners
6
1
Yellow cards
2
49%
Possession
51%
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Super Lig
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Samsunspor to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Kasımpaşa to win.
Our track record
In 1,529 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,140 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,338 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,682 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,251 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
Kasımpaşa 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,713 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Samsunspor 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Kasımpaşa4
Samsunspor1Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Kasımpaşa4Samsunspor1Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 33% | 67% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 69% | 31% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34% | 66% | 69% | 31% |
| 33% | 67% | 68% | 32% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
| 88% | 12% | 97% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
X-X
20%
2-2
20%
1-1
18%
X-2
14%
X-1
13%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.0%
0-1
11.2%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
10.6%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.8%
0-2
6.5%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
4.6%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor — Recent Form
Kasımpaşa have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table. Samsunspor have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table.
Last 5 matches
KasımpaşaSamsunsporOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
KasımpaşaSamsunsporBoth Teams to Score
KasımpaşaSamsunsporOver/Under 2.5 Goals
KasımpaşaSamsunsporOver/Under 3.5 Goals
KasımpaşaSamsunsporFirst Half Result
KasımpaşaSamsunsporCorrect Score
KasımpaşaSamsunspor