Shot-shy
4/10Wellington Phoenix failed to score in 4 of their last 10 (league 23%).
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Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
A-League Men - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)
Riding their luck
Wellington Phoenix are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+4points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Wellington Phoenix 52% to winCentral Coast Mariners 23%
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners score prediction
A-League Men
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.0 goals in total, a little over the A-League Men average of 2.9.
goals expected
Wellington Phoenix1.7
Central Coast Mariners1.3Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · A-League Men
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Wellington Phoenix to win
Our model 49%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 3,491 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 60%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 5,708 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 5,327 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,391 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 44%Bookmakers 40%
Our track record
In 2,229 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Wellington Phoenix Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 2,817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.2% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Central Coast Mariners Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Central Coast Mariners 0–1 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 3,277 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Wellington Phoenix–
Central Coast Mariners–Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Wellington Phoenix–Central Coast Mariners–Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
149%
X23%
228%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 80% | 49% | 51% |
| 36% | 64% | 66% | 34% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 26% | 89% | 11% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
137%
X44%
220%
1st Score
160%
X5%
235%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
32%
X-1
16%
X-X
14%
2-2
12%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.2%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
0-0
4.9%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners: the stats that stand out
A-League Men
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Wellington Phoenix: shot-shy
4/10Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners: attack vs defence
A-League Men
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other A-League Men teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Wellington Phoenix: weak attack, good defence (1.27 xG, 1.40 xGA a game)
- Central Coast Mariners: good attack, weak defence (1.52 xG, 1.99 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners form and luck check
A-League Men
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 A-League Men gamesWellington Phoenix are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- Wellington PhoenixBookmakers: 52% to win today.+4.3
- Central Coast MarinersBookmakers: 23% to win today.+2.0
Last 5 matches
Wellington PhoenixW
Central Coast MarinersD
W
D
L
Strength rank: Wellington Phoenix 9th of 10 · Central Coast Mariners 10th of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 10 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
A-League Men
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 A-League Men gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Wellington Phoenix games less often than the A-League Men average (60%), in Central Coast Mariners games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 57%
Wellington Phoenix5 of 10
Central Coast Mariners7 of 10
BTTSleague 60%
Wellington Phoenix4 of 10
Central Coast Mariners7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 163 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners corners, cards and goal times
A-League Men
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameWellington Phoenix score late
Wellington Phoenix
Central Coast Mariners
7.2
Corners won · league 5.1
3.1
5.4
Corners conceded · league 5.1
6.7
1.7
Cards · league 1.9
1.8
1.8
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
1.6
40%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
38%
40%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
15%
69%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
39%
13%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
33%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Central Coast Mariners0/1
Wellington Phoenix0/1
Both Teams to Score
Central Coast Mariners1/1
Wellington Phoenix1/1
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Central Coast Mariners1/1
Wellington Phoenix1/1
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Central Coast Mariners0/1
Wellington Phoenix1/1
First Half Result
Central Coast Mariners0/1
Wellington Phoenix1/1
Correct Score
Central Coast Mariners0/1
Wellington Phoenix0/1
correct predictionwrong prediction