Fast starters
6/9Auckland scored first in 6 of 9 recent matches with goal times (league 47%).
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Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
A-League Men - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)
Riding their luck
Wellington Phoenix are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+6points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Wellington Phoenix 26% to winAuckland 49%
Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix score prediction
A-League Men
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Auckland expected to create clearly more
2.8 goals in total, in line with the A-League Men average of 2.8.
goals expected
Auckland1.7
Wellington Phoenix1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · A-League Men
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Auckland to win
Our model 54%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.2%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 57%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 5,749 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 57%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 5,330 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 3,997 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Auckland ahead at half-time
Our model 40%Bookmakers 36%
Our track record
In 1,208 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.0% than to our 35–40%.
Auckland Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Auckland 2+ goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 1,889 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Wellington Phoenix Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Wellington Phoenix 0–1 goals
Our model 73%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 3,386 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Auckland–
Wellington Phoenix–Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Auckland–Wellington Phoenix–Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Full Time
154%
X23%
223%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 22% | 78% | 44% | 56% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 56% | 44% | 80% | 20% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18% | 82% | 47% | 53% |
| 41% | 59% | 73% | 27% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 27% | 89% | 11% |
| 91% | 9% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
140%
X39%
221%
1st Score
157%
X6%
237%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
33%
X-1
17%
X-X
13%
2-2
12%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.6%
2-1
10.3%
1-0
10.1%
2-0
8.4%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
5.8%
0-0
5.6%
2-2
5.4%
3-0
5.3%
3-2
3.4%
0-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix: the stats that stand out
A-League Men
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Auckland: fast starters
6/9Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix: attack vs defence
A-League Men
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other A-League Men teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Auckland: weak attack, good defence (1.22 xG, 1.43 xGA a game)
- Wellington Phoenix: weak attack, good defence (1.35 xG, 1.35 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix form and luck check
A-League Men
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 A-League Men gamesWellington Phoenix are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- AucklandBookmakers: 49% to win today. · 9 of 10 gamesClinical · +5 goals+1.7
- Wellington PhoenixBookmakers: 26% to win today.+6.0
Last 5 matches
Wellington PhoenixW
W
W
AucklandD
L
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Auckland 2nd of 12 · Wellington Phoenix 10th of 12
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 12 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
A-League Men
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 A-League Men gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Wellington Phoenix games less often than the A-League Men average (61%), in Auckland games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 56%
Auckland5 of 10
Wellington Phoenix4 of 10
BTTSleague 61%
Auckland7 of 10
Wellington Phoenix4 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 163 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix corners, cards and goal times
A-League Men
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.1
- Cards: league 1.9
- Goals before half-time: league 43%
- Goals after 75': league 22%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Wellington Phoenix1/3
Auckland2/3
Both Teams to Score
Wellington Phoenix1/3
Auckland3/3
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Wellington Phoenix2/3
Auckland2/3
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Wellington Phoenix3/3
Auckland1/3
First Half Result
Wellington Phoenix2/3
Auckland2/3
Correct Score
Wellington Phoenix0/3
Auckland1/3
correct predictionwrong prediction