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Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

A-League Men - Season 2025/2026 (Round 1)

Fair result
Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar

1–0

MacarthurMacarthur
1.2Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Brisbane Roar would usually take 1.3 points and Macarthur 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Brisbane Roar.

Brisbane Roar +1.7 pts vs chancesMacarthur −1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur stats: how the match was played

A-League Men

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Brisbane Roar had more than twice the shots on target

Brisbane Roar

Macarthur

2

Shots on target

1

1

Big chances

2

3

Corners

3

3

Yellow cards

5

2

Red cards

0

36%

Possession

64%

The match between Brisbane Roar and Macarthur ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Macarthur win at 42% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Brisbane Roar – Auckland prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · A-League Men

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Macarthur to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Brisbane Roar to win.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 32%

Our track record

In 1,069 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,106 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 946 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 38%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,003 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Brisbane Roar Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Brisbane Roar 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Macarthur Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Macarthur 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 1,023 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
A-League Men - Australia
Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar1
MacarthurMacarthur0

Winner

X2 65%

BTTS*

Yes 63%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

Full Time

135%
X23%
242%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT17%83%37%63%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT49%51%75%25%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Brisbane Roar29%71%59%41%
Macarthur24%76%52%48%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Brisbane Roar81%19%93%7%
Macarthur77%23%90%10%

1st Half

130%
X38%
232%

1st Score

146%
X4%
250%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

2-2

23%

X-2

13%

X-1

11%

X-X

11%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.1%

1-2

8.8%

2-1

8.0%

2-2

6.7%

0-1

6.5%

1-0

6.2%

0-2

5.5%

1-3

4.6%

2-0

4.5%

3-1

4.1%

0-0

4.1%

3-2

3.5%

2-3

3.3%

0-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Brisbane Roar – Auckland prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

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