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Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

A-League Men - Season 2025/2026 (Round 20)

Fair result
Melbourne CityMelbourne City

1–0

Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar
1.3Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Melbourne City would usually take 1.8 points and Brisbane Roar 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Melbourne City.

Melbourne City +1.2 pts vs chancesBrisbane Roar −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar stats: how the match was played

A-League Men

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Melbourne City had more than twice the shots on target

Melbourne City

Brisbane Roar

3

Shots on target

1

2

Big chances

0

5

Corners

5

3

Yellow cards

3

68%

Possession

32%

The match between Melbourne City and Brisbane Roar ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Melbourne City win with 49% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Melbourne Victory – Melbourne City prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · A-League Men

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Melbourne City to win

Correct
Our model 49%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,488 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,126 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 2,842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 4,561 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,670 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Melbourne City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Melbourne City 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,807 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Brisbane Roar Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Brisbane Roar 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,362 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
A-League Men - Australia
Melbourne CityMelbourne City1
Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar0

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

149%
X24%
227%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT24%76%48%52%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT61%39%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Melbourne City22%78%53%47%
Brisbane Roar37%63%71%29%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Melbourne City79%21%92%8%
Brisbane Roar90%10%97%3%

1st Half

139%
X41%
220%

1st Score

157%
X6%
237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

17%

X-X

14%

2-2

12%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.7%

1-0

10.4%

2-1

10.0%

2-0

8.3%

0-1

7.2%

1-2

7.1%

0-0

6.4%

2-2

5.1%

3-1

4.8%

3-0

4.6%

0-2

3.9%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Melbourne Victory – Melbourne City prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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