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Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix

Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

A-League Men - Season 2025/2026 (Round 20)

Fair result

Adelaide United

1–1

Wellington Phoenix

2.0Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Adelaide United would usually take 1.8 points and Wellington Phoenix 1.0; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Adelaide United.

Adelaide United −0.8 pts vs chancesWellington Phoenix 0.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix stats: how the match was played

A-League Men

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Adelaide United

Wellington Phoenix

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

67%

Possession

33%

The match between Adelaide United and Wellington Phoenix ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Adelaide United win at 58% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sydney – Adelaide United prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · A-League Men

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Adelaide United to win

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 1,811 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 67%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 1,170 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 946 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Adelaide United ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 45%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 4,292 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Adelaide United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Adelaide United 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 62%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.1% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Wellington Phoenix Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Wellington Phoenix 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,393 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

A-League Men - Australia

Adelaide United1

Wellington Phoenix1

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

· FT

A-League Men - Australia

Adelaide United1

Wellington Phoenix1

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

Full Time

158%

X21%

221%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	14%	86%	33%	67%	45%	55%	70%	30%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	14%	86%	33%	67%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	45%	55%	70%	30%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	14%	86%	38%	62%	64%	36%	82%	18%
	41%	59%	70%	30%	89%	11%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	14%	86%	38%	62%
	41%	59%	70%	30%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	64%	36%	82%	18%
	89%	11%	96%	4%

1st Half

145%

X34%

220%

1st Score

164%

X3%

232%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

40%

X-1

16%

X-X

11%

2-2

11%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

9.7%

1-1

8.9%

2-0

7.3%

1-0

7.0%

3-1

6.7%

2-2

6.1%

1-2

5.6%

3-0

5.4%

3-2

4.2%

0-1

4.0%

0-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sydney – Adelaide United prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).