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Central Coast Mariners vs Adelaide United 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

A-League Men - Season 2025/2026 (Round 21)

Robbed

Adelaide United drew despite more chances

Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast Mariners

1–1

Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United
0.5Chances (xG)2.4

On these chances Central Coast Mariners would usually take 0.3 points and Adelaide United 2.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Adelaide United.

Central Coast Mariners +0.7 pts vs chancesAdelaide United −1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Central Coast Mariners vs Adelaide United stats: how the match was played

A-League Men

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Adelaide United had more than twice the shots on target

Central Coast Mariners

Adelaide United

2

Shots on target

9

1

Big chances

3

0

Corners

7

1

Yellow cards

2

47%

Possession

53%

The match between Central Coast Mariners and Adelaide United ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Adelaide United win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Wellington Phoenix – Central Coast Mariners prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Central Coast Mariners vs Adelaide United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · A-League Men

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Adelaide United to win

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,688 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,950 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 38%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Central Coast Mariners Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Central Coast Mariners 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,672 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Adelaide United Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Adelaide United 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Adelaide United 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 634 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Central Coast Mariners vs Adelaide United 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Central Coast Mariners vs Adelaide United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
A-League Men - Australia
Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast Mariners1
Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United1

Winner

X2 68%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

132%
X25%
243%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%45%55%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT57%43%81%19%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Central Coast Mariners32%68%65%35%
Adelaide United25%75%56%44%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Central Coast Mariners86%14%96%4%
Adelaide United80%20%92%8%

1st Half

127%
X38%
235%

1st Score

140%
X6%
253%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

28%

1-1

17%

X-2

15%

X-X

14%

X-1

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

11.5%

1-2

9.0%

0-1

8.9%

1-0

7.7%

2-1

7.3%

0-2

6.5%

0-0

6.2%

2-2

5.9%

2-0

4.8%

1-3

4.6%

0-3

3.5%

3-1

3.3%

2-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Wellington Phoenix – Central Coast Mariners prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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