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Gangwon vs Machida Zelvia

Gangwon vs Machida Zelvia 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

AFC Champions League Elite - Season 2025/2026 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 5)

Fair result

Gangwon

1–3

Machida Zelvia

1.0Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Gangwon would usually take 1.4 points and Machida Zelvia 1.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Machida Zelvia.

Gangwon −1.4 pts vs chancesMachida Zelvia +1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Gangwon vs Machida Zelvia stats: how the match was played

AFC Champions League Elite

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Gangwon

Machida Zelvia

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

67%

Possession

33%

The match between Gangwon and Machida Zelvia ended 1-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Machida Zelvia win with 41% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Gangwon vs Machida Zelvia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · AFC Champions League Elite

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Machida Zelvia to win

Correct

Our model 41%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 3,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,456 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 78%Bookmakers 82%

Our track record

In 3,654 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,243 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Gangwon Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gangwon 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 72%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 1,581 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.9% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Machida Zelvia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Machida Zelvia 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Gangwon vs Machida Zelvia 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Gangwon vs Machida Zelvia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

AFC Champions League Elite - Asia

Gangwon1

Machida Zelvia3

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

· FT

AFC Champions League Elite - Asia

Gangwon1

Machida Zelvia3

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

130%

X29%

241%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	32%	68%	58%	42%	68%	32%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	32%	68%	58%	42%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	68%	32%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	38%	62%	72%	28%	91%	9%	97%	3%
	29%	71%	64%	36%	86%	14%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	38%	62%	72%	28%
	29%	71%	64%	36%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	91%	9%	97%	3%
	86%	14%	95%	5%

1st Half

121%

X48%

231%

1st Score

137%

X10%

253%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

26%

X-X

20%

X-2

17%

1-1

14%

X-1

10%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.0%

0-1

12.1%

0-0

10.1%

1-0

9.8%

1-2

8.5%

0-2

7.8%

2-1

6.5%

2-0

5.2%

2-2

4.7%

1-3

3.4%

0-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score