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  4. Machida Zelvia vs Gangwon

Machida Zelvia vs Gangwon 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

AFC Champions League Elite - Season 2025/2026 8th Finals (Knock Out)

Fair result
Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia

1–0

GangwonGangwon
0.8Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Machida Zelvia would usually take 0.9 points and Gangwon 1.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Machida Zelvia.

Machida Zelvia +2.1 pts vs chancesGangwon −1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Machida Zelvia vs Gangwon stats: how the match was played

AFC Champions League Elite

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Machida Zelvia

Gangwon

4

Shots on target

4

1

Big chances

1

2

Corners

9

2

Yellow cards

1

39%

Possession

61%

The match between Machida Zelvia and Gangwon ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Machida Zelvia win with 49% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Machida Zelvia vs Gangwon — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · AFC Champions League Elite

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Machida Zelvia to win

Correct
Our model 49%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,442 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.4% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 6,410 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Machida Zelvia ahead at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,184 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.

Machida Zelvia Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Machida Zelvia 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Machida Zelvia 2+ goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,002 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 55–60%.

Gangwon Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gangwon 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 84%

Our track record

In 2,571 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Machida Zelvia vs Gangwon 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Machida Zelvia vs Gangwon. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
AFC Champions League Elite - Asia
Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1
GangwonGangwon0

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

149%
X26%
225%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Machida Zelvia24%76%57%43%
Gangwon41%59%75%25%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Machida Zelvia81%19%93%7%
Gangwon92%8%98%2%

1st Half

140%
X41%
219%

1st Score

160%
X8%
231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

34%

X-1

17%

X-X

15%

2-2

11%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

12.3%

1-1

12.1%

2-1

9.3%

2-0

8.8%

0-0

8.4%

0-1

8.1%

1-2

5.9%

3-0

4.7%

2-2

4.5%

3-1

4.4%

0-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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