Brick wall
4/10FSV Mainz 05 kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 21%).
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FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)
Brick wall
FSV Mainz 05 kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 21%).
4/10Clean sheets · FSV Mainz 05
Bookmakers: FSV Mainz 05 40% to winFC Augsburg 36%
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 score prediction
Bundesliga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.5 goals in total, a little over the Bundesliga average of 3.3.
goals expected
FC Augsburg1.9FSV Mainz 051.6Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 to win
Our model 44%Bookmakers 40%
Our track record
In 3,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 59%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 5,749 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.9%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 67%
Our track record
In 5,313 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 2,420 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 ahead at half-time
Our model 37%Bookmakers 34%
Our track record
In 1,205 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.
FC Augsburg Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Augsburg 0–1 goals
Our model 64%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 394 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.0% than to our 60–65%.
FSV Mainz 05 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 0–1 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.5% than to our 50–55%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
FC Augsburg–
FSV Mainz 05–Winner
X2 69%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
FC Augsburg–FSV Mainz 05–Winner
X2 69%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
131%
X24%
244%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 42% | 58% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 67% | 64% | 36% |
| 23% | 77% | 53% | 47% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 77% | 23% | 90% | 10% |
1st Half
127%
X36%
237%
1st Score
143%
X5%
251%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
28%
1-1
18%
X-2
14%
X-X
13%
X-1
10%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.7%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.1%
2-1
7.3%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
0-2
6.3%
0-0
5.4%
1-3
4.8%
2-0
4.4%
0-3
3.5%
3-1
3.4%
2-3
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05: the stats that stand out
Bundesliga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%FSV Mainz 05: brick wall and slow starters
4/10Slow starters
3/10FSV Mainz 05 scored first in only 3 of their last 10 (league 48%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05: attack vs defence
Bundesliga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Bundesliga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- FC Augsburg: good attack, weak defence (1.84 xG, 1.97 xGA a game)
- FSV Mainz 05: good attack, weak defence (1.77 xG, 1.77 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 form and luck check
Bundesliga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Bundesliga gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- FC AugsburgBookmakers: 36% to win today.−3.2
- FSV Mainz 05Bookmakers: 40% to win today.−1.8
Last 5 matches
FSV Mainz 05L
L
L
W
L
FC AugsburgL
L
D
L
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: FC Augsburg 12th of 18 · FSV Mainz 05 8th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Bundesliga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Bundesliga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredFC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Bundesliga average (66%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 66%
FC Augsburg9 of 10
FSV Mainz 057 of 10
BTTSleague 63%
FC Augsburg8 of 10
FSV Mainz 056 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 297 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 corners, cards and goal times
Bundesliga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.0
- Cards: league 1.9
- Goals before half-time: league 42%
- Goals after 75': league 26%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
FC Augsburg2/5
FSV Mainz 053/5
Both Teams to Score
FC Augsburg5/5
FSV Mainz 054/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
FC Augsburg4/5
FSV Mainz 054/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
FC Augsburg2/5
FSV Mainz 052/5
First Half Result
FC Augsburg2/5
FSV Mainz 052/5
Correct Score
FC Augsburg1/5
FSV Mainz 050/5
correct predictionwrong prediction