Slow starters
2/10FC Köln scored first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 48%).
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FC Köln vs Elversberg Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Riding their luck
Elversberg are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+6points more than their chances usually bring in their last 9 with xG
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Elversberg 26% to winFC Köln 50%
FC Köln vs Elversberg score prediction
Bundesliga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
FC Köln expected to create clearly more
3.4 goals in total, a little over the Bundesliga average of 3.3.
goals expected
FC Köln2.0
Elversberg1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for FC Köln vs Elversberg: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
FC Köln vs Elversberg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Köln to win
Our model 44%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 3,614 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 2,493 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 61.8%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 5,314 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 59%
Our track record
In 2,421 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 38%Bookmakers 37%
Our track record
In 1,205 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.
FC Köln Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Köln 0–1 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 1,899 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 40.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.5% than to our 50–55%.
Elversberg Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Elversberg 0–1 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 2,632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.2% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
FC Köln vs Elversberg — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for FC Köln vs Elversberg. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
FC Köln–
Elversberg–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
FC Köln–Elversberg–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
144%
X25%
231%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 41% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 53% | 47% |
| 32% | 68% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 23% | 91% | 9% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
134%
X38%
228%
1st Score
153%
X5%
241%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
2-2
20%
X-1
13%
X-X
13%
X-2
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.7%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
7.3%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
2-0
6.1%
0-0
5.5%
3-1
4.9%
0-2
4.2%
3-2
3.6%
3-0
3.5%
1-3
3.4%
2-3
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
FC Köln vs Elversberg: the stats that stand out
Bundesliga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%FC Köln: slow starters
2/10Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →FC Köln vs Elversberg: attack vs defence
Bundesliga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Bundesliga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- FC Köln: weak attack, good defence (1.47 xG, 1.58 xGA a game)
- Elversberg: weak attack, weak defence (1.23 xG, 2.01 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →FC Köln vs Elversberg form and luck check
Bundesliga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Bundesliga gamesElversberg are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- FC KölnBookmakers: 50% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−3.5
- ElversbergBookmakers: 26% to win today. · 9 of 10 gamesClinical · +6 goals+6.4
Last 5 matches
ElversbergL
W
L
W
L
FC KölnL
D
D
L
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: FC Köln 11th of 18 · Elversberg 15th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →FC Köln vs Elversberg: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Bundesliga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Bundesliga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in FC Köln and Elversberg games more often than the Bundesliga average (63%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 66%
FC Köln6 of 10
Elversberg7 of 9
BTTSleague 63%
FC Köln8 of 10
Elversberg6 of 9
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 297 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →FC Köln vs Elversberg corners, cards and goal times
Bundesliga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.0
- Cards: league 1.9
- Goals before half-time: league 42%
- Goals after 75': league 26%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
FC Köln2/5
Elversberg3/5
Both Teams to Score
FC Köln3/5
Elversberg2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
FC Köln3/5
Elversberg4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
FC Köln5/5
Elversberg2/5
First Half Result
FC Köln3/5
Elversberg0/5
Correct Score
FC Köln0/5
Elversberg0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction